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3 Big Things Today, November 10, 2022

Soybeans, Corn Lower Overnight; Ethanol Output Hits Four-Month High

1. Soybean, Corn Futures Fall in Overnight Trading

Soybeans and corn were modestly lower overnight while wheat was mixed after the government raised its outlook for production in yesterday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said it now expects soybean production in the 2022-2023 marketing year at 4.346 billion bushels, up from the October outlook for 4.313 billion bushels.

That also topped forecast from analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal for 4.324 billion bushels.

Yield is now seen at 50.2 bushels an acre, up from the previous projection of 49.8 bushels an acre and above expectations for 49.9 bushels.

Corn output is pegged at 13.93 billion bushels, USDA said. That's up from the previous month's outlook for 13.895 billion bushels and ahead of expectations for 13.893 billion.

Yield is forecast at 172.3 bushels an acre, up from 171.9 bushels a month earlier and the analyst estimate for 171.9 bushels.

Soybean inventories were projected at 220 million bushels, up from the 200 million forecast a month earlier, and ahead of expectations in the WSJ poll for 215 million.

Corn stocks were pegged at 1.182 billion bushels, up from 1.172 billion bushels expected a month earlier, USDA said, but short of analyst forecasts for 1.212 billion bushels.

Investors also are watching developments in Ukraine where an agreement allowing shipments of agricultural products from the country remains uncertain.

The deal, originally brokered in July and implemented at the start of August, expires in November and so far no extension as been agreed upon. Still, officials from the United Nations, which along with Turkey helped broker the original agreement, are optimistic that it will be extended.

Soybean futures for January delivery fell 4½¢ to $14.47 ½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal lost $5.40 to 412.20 a short ton, while soybean oil rose 0.05¢ to 75.59¢ a pound.

Corn for December delivery was down 2½¢ to $6.62 a bushel.

Wheat futures for December delivery rose 2¢ to $8.08 ½ a bushel, while Kansas City futures dropped ½¢ to $9.29 a bushel.

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2. Weekly Ethanol Output Rises to Four-Month High

Ethanol production jumped to the highest level in more than four months while inventories declined week-to-week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

Output in the seven days that ended on Nov. 4 jumped to an average of 1.051 million barrels per day, EIA said in a report. That's up from 1.04 million barrels a week earlier and the highest since June 24.

In the Midwest, by far the largest producing region, production rose to 992,000 barrels per day, on average, from 981,000 barrels the previous week, the agency said.

That's the most for the region since June 17.

Last week's gain in the Midwest was the entirety of the additions as production in most regions was unchanged.

East Coast output remained at 12,000 barrels per day, on average, for the third consecutive week and Rocky Mountain production was steady at 15,000 barrels a day for the fourth straight week, EIA said.

West Coast production was unchanged at 8,000 barrels for the third week in a row.

Gulf Coast output, meanwhile, declined to 24,000 barrels a day from 25,000 barrels the previous week, the government said.

Ethanol inventories in the week that ended on Nov. 4 declined to 22.192 million barrels from 22.232 million barrels a week earlier. That's the lowest level since the seven days that ended on Oct. 14, EIA said in its report.

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3. Blizzard and Ice-Storm Warnings Issued in Northern Plains

Blizzard, ice storm, and winter-storm warnings are in effect for parts of the Dakotas this morning, according to the National Weather Service.

In central North Dakota and northern South Dakota, up to 16 inches of snow are expected, along with winds gusting to 45 mph, NWS said in a report early this morning.

"Travel will be very difficult to impossible," the agency said. "Widespread blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. Travel should be restricted to emergencies only."

An ice-storm warning has been issued in parts of northeastern South Dakota and remains in effect until 9 a.m. central time this morning as "significant icing" is occurring. Another inch of snow on top of the ice is expected in the area.

Mixed precipitation is forecast through midday with two tenths of an inch of ice projected for the region, NWS said.

In the southeastern U.S., meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Nicole will continue to affect weather in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, the agency's Weather Prediction Center said.

The storm made landfall on Florida's East Coast this morning and will move northwest across Florida today, NWS said. High waves and a storm surge are forecast from the East Coast of southern Florida through parts of North Carolina.

"Heavy rainfall will spread northward Friday into Saturday, and isolated flash, urban, and small-stream flooding will be possible on Friday," the agency said.

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