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3 Big Things Today, November 15, 2021

Wheat Futures Rise Overnight; Export Sales Decline Across the Board.

1. Wheat Futures Rise in Overnight Trading

Wheat futures rose in overnight trading as the grain’s uptrend continued due to concerns about global supplies.

Prices reached an almost nine-year high last week after Russia said it may implement further export levies and other restrictions to ensure ample domestic supply of the grain.

Russia shipped 16.6 million metric tons of wheat from July 1 through Nov. 11, a 16% year-on-year decline, S&P Global said in a note to clients, citing the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance.

Analysts with S&P Global have pegged Russian wheat exports in 2021-2022 at 36.5 million metric tons.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture last week forecast shipments from the country at 36 million metric tons, down from 38.5 million tons a year earlier.

Iran said last week that it’s planning to make a large purchase in the near future, which also may weigh on supplies worldwide. The Middle Eastern nation has purchased 8 million metric tons of wheat since April, according to local media reports.

Global wheat stockpiles are pegged by the U.S. Department of Agriculture at 275.8 million metric tons in the year that ends on May 31. That’s down from 288 million metric tons a year earlier.

In the U.S., output is now seen at 1.65 billion bushels, down from 1.83 billion last year. Domestic inventories on May 31 are seen at 583 million bushels, down from 845 million a year earlier, the USDA said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Wheat futures for December delivery rose 3¾¢ to $8.20¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures gained 2¼¢ to $8.35¼ a bushel.

Corn futures for December delivery were down ¾¢ at $5.76½ a bushel.

Soybean futures for November delivery fell 1½¢ to $12.42¾ a bushel. Soymeal gained $2.70 to $364.80 a short ton, while soy oil lost 0.56¢ to 58.41¢ a pound.

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2. Export Sales of Grains, Beans Decline Week-to-Week

Export sales of grains and beans last week were all down from the previous week, according to the USDA.

Sales of corn to overseas buyers in the seven days that ended on Nov. 4 fell to 1.07 million metric tons, down 13% from a week earlier and 4% from the prior four-week average, the agency said.

Canada bought 357,600 metric tons, Colombia took 304,600 tons, Mexico purchased 272,200 tons, Japan was in for 151,100 tons, and the Dominican Republic purchased 11,500 tons.

An unnamed country canceled cargoes of 45,600 metric tons and Costa Rica nixed shipments of 13,700 tons, the USDA said.

Exports for the week totaled 718,000 metric tons, down 4%.

Soybean sales last week were reported at 1.29 million metric tons, a 31% drop from the previous week and a 25% decline from the average, the government said.

China was in for 939,300 metric tons and Germany was a distant second at 311,400 tons. Egypt took 231,400 tons, Portugal bought 82,100 tons, and Mexico purchased 80,700 tons.

The total would have been much higher but unknown destinations canceled shipments for 847,400 metric tons, the USDA said.

Wheat export sales fell to 285,900 metric tons, down 29% from a week earlier and from the prior four-week average, the agency said in a report that was delayed due to Veterans Day.

The Philippines bought 152,000 metric tons, Japan took 57,400 tons, Mexico purchased 37,200 tons, Italy was in for 29,200 tons, and Guatemala bought 24,200 tons.

An unnamed country canceled shipments totaling 41,800 tons and Nigeria nixed cargoes of 30,300 tons.

Export sales for the week were reported at 270,000 metric tons, almost double the previous week, the USDA said in its report.

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3. Winds Create Dry Conditions in Northern and Southern Plains

Strong winds are creating extremely dry conditions in parts of the Dakotas starting tomorrow, according to the National Weather Service.

High-wind watches have been issued for western parts of both states, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

In western South Dakota, winds are expected to be sustained from 25 to 40 mph with gusts of up to 55 mph, the agency said.

“High winds may love loose debris, damage property, and cause power outages,” the NWS said. “Travel could be difficult, especially for high-profile vehicles.”

In the southern Plains, strong winds also may be a problem.

A fire-weather watch is in effect starting tomorrow afternoon amid gusty winds and low humidity, the agency said.

Winds likely will be sustained at around 25 mph with gusts of up to 35 mph. Relative humidity will drop as low as 8% tomorrow, the NWS said.

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