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3 Big Things Today, November 16, 2022

Grains, Soybeans Lower Overnight; Turkey Supplies Rapidly Dwindling

1. Grain, Soybean Futures Plunge in Overnight Trading

Grain and soybean futures were lower in overnight trading after tensions between Poland and Russia eased following a preliminary report indicating a missile that hit Poland originated in Ukraine.

The missile killed two people.

Polish President Andrzej Duda said the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces that were attempting to defend the country against a barrage of Russian missile attacks.

Russia immediately denied its forces fired the missile. Polish officials reportedly investigated the site after the strike and members of NATO met to discuss a reaction if it was determined Russia had intentionally launched the missile.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said there is no indication the attack was deliberate, though he said Russia is not blameless, as it caused the situation in the first place.

Still, tensions have eased in the area at a critical time as negotiators attempt to encourage Russia to extend an agreement that will keep agricultural products flowing out of Ukraine.

The deal, which was brokered in July by Turkey and the United Nations, will expire in three days without an extension. UN officials have expressed optimism that the agreement will be extended, but so far no announcements have been made.

Wheat futures for December delivery dropped 22¼ ¢ to $8.25 ¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures lost 17¾¢ to $9.36 ¾ a bushel.

Corn for December delivery was down 8¢ to $6.61 a bushel.

Soybean futures for January delivery fell 14¢ to $14.43 ½ a bushel. Soymeal dropped $2.50 to $404.50 a short ton, while soybean oil lost 0.78¢ to 73.89¢ a pound.

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2. Turkey Inventories Declining Rapidly Ahead of Thanksgiving

It's time to talk turkey.

Those waiting for the perfect gobbler should get theirs soon with supplies rapidly dwindling as Americans prepare for Thanksgiving, which is now just eight days away.

Only 49.62 million pounds of turkeys remained in cold storage as of Nov. 14, down 18% week-to-week, USDA said in a report yesterday.

At the end of August, when stockpiles are generally at their peak, they totaled about 114.4 million pounds, the agency said in an updated report.

While turkey production was expected to decline 7% year-over-year, the amount of meat in storage actually rose 1% from the same point in 2021, the government said.

Placements in August, the last month by which chicks can mature enough for Thanksgiving, rose 2% over the five-year average as producers attempted to make up for lost output earlier in the year when avian influenza hit farms.

Since the end of August, meanwhile, inventories have been steadily declining. Stocks in September fell to 105.4 million pounds, but that was still up 9% from the same month a year earlier, USDA said in its report.

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3. Snowfall Expected in Parts of Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan

Scattered snow is expected to continue in parts of northeastern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin this afternoon, according to the National Weather Service.

Snow will persist through Saturday in the region, though little accumulations are expected, NWS said in a report early this morning.

Wind chills are expected to drop into the single digits overnight Thursday through Saturday.

In southern Michigan and northern Indiana, meanwhile, winter storm warnings are in effect amid wet, heavy snow, the agency said.  Up to 10 inches is possible, with heavier amounts of around a foot possible near the state line.

One to 2 inches of snow per hour are possible today into early tonight, NWS said

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