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3 Big Things Today, November 18, 2022

Grains, Soybeans Rise Overnight; Export Sales of Corn Surge Week-to-Week

1. Grain, Soybean Futures Higher in Overnight Trading

Grains and soybeans were higher in overnight trading on dry weather in much of the U.S. southern Plains, though prices were pressured by the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Dry weather has prevailed in much of the southern Plains where hard-red winter wheat is growing, and cool weather is sending wheat into dormancy, said Don Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist with Maxar, in a note to clients.

Winterkill is possible in parts of western Nebraska early this morning as temperatures and wind chills in the panhandle have dropped well below zero.

Some precipitation is expected in southern parts of the region this weekend, which may improve moisture.

Little or no rain has fallen in much of the southern Plains in the past two weeks, according to data from the National Weather Service's precipitation page.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows southwestern Kansas and parts of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles are suffering from extreme drought, the worst-possible rating.

Just over 86% of Kansas, the biggest wheat producer in the U.S., is seeing drought conditions, the monitor said. That's up from 72% three months ago and 50% at the beginning of 2022.

Almost 98% of Oklahoma is suffering from drought, which is little changed from three months ago but up from 90% at the beginning of the calendar year, the monitor said.

Prices, however, are being pressured after it was announced the Black Sea Grain Initiative — the agreement that allows agricultural products to be shipped from Ukrainian ports — was extended for another six months.

The original agreement, brokered in July and implemented in August, was set to expire Saturday before the extension.

Wheat futures for December delivery rose 5¾¢ to $8.30 ¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures gained 1¼¢ to $9.30 ¼ a bushel.

Corn for December delivery was up 4½¢ to $6.73 ½ a bushel.

Soybean futures for January delivery gained 9¢ to $14.26 a bushel. Soymeal added $2.70b to $405.20 a short ton, while soybean oil rose 0.73¢ to 70.95¢ a pound.

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2. Export Sales of Corn and Beans Surge Week-to-Week

Sales of corn and beans to overseas buyers jumped week-to-week while wheat sales declined, according to data from USDA.

Corn export sales in the seven days that ended on Nov. 10 improved to 1.17 million metric tons from 265,300 tons a week earlier, the agency said in a report.

That's the highest level since April 7.

Mexico was the big buyer at 919,800 metric tons, Canada took 91,300 tons, Saudi Arabia took 65,000 tons, Japan was in for 47,200 tons, and Panama bought 26,000 tons. Colombia canceled cargoes of 19,500 tons and Costa Rica nixed shipments of 15,600 tons, USDA said.

Exporters rose to 564,400 metric tons, up from 259,400 tons a week earlier.

Soybean sales surged to 3.03 million metric tons, up from 794,800 tons the previous week, the agency said.

China purchased 1.54 million metric tons, Mexico bought 455,500 tons, an unnamed country took 397,600 tons, Germany bought 138,900 tons, and South Korea was in for 108,800 tons.

Exports for the week totaled 2.08 million metric tons, which was down from the 2.75 million tons shipped in the previous seven-day period, the government said.

Wheat sales, meanwhile, were reported at 290,300 metric tons, down from 322,500 tons the previous week.

Mexico purchased 68,400 metric tons, Japan was in for 62,600 tons, Chile bought 60,000 tons, Thailand was in for 51,500 tons, and the Philippines took 33,100 tons. Nigeria canceled cargoes of 12,000 tons.

Exports came in at 118,600 metric tons, down from 151,500 tons a week earlier, USDA said in its report.

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3. Wind-Chill Advisories in Effect in Nebraska, Winter Storms in Michigan

Wind-chill advisories are in effect for parts of western Nebraska today as temperatures plunge, according to the National Weather Service.

 Values overnight were forecast to fall as low as minus-20 degrees Fahrenheit, NWS said in a report early this morning.

"The cold wind chills could cause frost bite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes," the agency said.

Further east, winter-storm warnings remain in effect through tomorrow in parts of Michigan.

Another 6 inches of snow is expected through tonight and additional 3 to 6 inches is forecast for Saturday, NWS said.

"Travel could be very difficult due to snow and ice-covered roads and visibilities reduced to near-zero at times," the agency said.

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