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3 Big Things Today, November 21

Beans, Grains Little Change Overnight; Harvest Almost Complete, Some States Lag

1. Soybeans, Grains Little Changed Overnight on Lack of News, Quiet Trading

Soybeans and grains were little changed overnight on light volume, which is to be expected in a holiday-shortened week.

Prices are still rangebound as the negative supply fundamentals – better-than-average yields in the U.S. and favorable weather, so far, in South America – bump against intermittent positive demand news.

Still, little has changed on the fundamental front, meaning prices will stay in a narrow range until more trade news emerges, analysts said.

In weather news, rainfall in Brazil is capping prices as it’s expected to help the crop in the South American country, though some dry weather is reported in the northern quarter of the Argentine corn and soybean belts this week.

Soybean futures for January delivery fell 1½¢ to $9.88½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal declined $1.40 to $318.40 a short ton, and soy oil rose 0.18¢ to 34.13¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery lost a penny to $3.44 a bushel overnight.

Wheat futures were unchanged at $4.22 a bushel in Chicago. Kansas City futures dropped ½¢ to $4.33¼ a bushel.

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2. Harvest Almost Finished With Some States Still Lagging Behind Normal Pace

The harvest is almost finished, though a couple of states in the eastern Corn Belt still have a lot of corn and beans left in the field.

The total U.S. corn harvest was 90% finished as of Sunday, up from 83% a week earlier but still behind the prior five-year average of 95% for this time of year, the Department of Agriculture said in a report.

In Iowa, 92% of the crop is in the bin, while in Illinois about 95% is harvested, only slightly behind the average pace.

In Indiana, however, only 87% of the crop is collected, behind the normal pace by 8 percentage points. The Wisconsin crop is only 69% harvested vs. the average of 85% for this time of year, according to the USDA.

As it’s been all season, the soybean harvest is looking much better. Some 96% of the crop was in the bin as of Sunday, just behind the average of 97%, the government said.

In Iowa, 98% of the crop was collected, and in Illinois the harvest is finished. The only states that are significantly behind are Indiana, where growers are 92% finished with collection, vs. the normal 98% for this time of year, and Kentucky, where only 78% of the crop is in the bin compared with the normal average of 89%, the USDA said.

Winter wheat looks to be right on pace as 88% has emerged, right on par with the average. In Kansas, the biggest grower of winter wheat in the U.S., 90% of the crop has emerged.

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3. Strong Winds in North-Central Plains, Flooding in Indiana Top Weather News

A large chunk of land stretching from the Canadian border well into Iowa will see strong winds today with gusts reaching almost 50 mph in some areas, according to the National Weather Service.

The strongest winds are expected in the morning hours and likely will be sustained from about 20 to 30 mph.  

Further east, flood warnings are still in effect for parts of Indiana and Ohio after several inches of rain fell over the weekend. As much as 4 inches of precipitation fell on Saturday in central and northern Indiana, north of Interstate 70, the NWS said.

“As of late Monday evening, the White River was at or near crest in the Indianapolis area,” the agency said in a report early Tuesday. “The flood crest in the Spencer, Bloomfield, and Edwardsport areas will arrive by late Thursday.”

Little or no rain is expected in the state this week, which should allow rivers and creeks to recede quickly, the NWS said.

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