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3 Big Things Today, November 29

Soybeans Lower, Corn Unchanged Overnight; Bean, Corn Acres Each Seen at 91 Million.

1. Soybeans Slightly Lower on Forecasts For Rain in South America

Soybeans were slightly lower in overnight trading while grains were little changed.

Beans fell on forecasts for rain in parts of northern Brazil in the next two weeks, which should boost crops in the region. Intermittent showers are expected in much of western Argentina through Sunday and again on Wednesday, Commodity Weather Group said in report.

Wheat was little changed on threats of extremely cold weather in the Southern Plains, but it likely won’t be cold enough to kill exposed winter plants, the forecaster said.   

Soybean futures for January delivery lost 3½¢ to $9.89½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal rose a dime to $325.90 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.31¢ to 33.82¢ a pound.

Corn futures for March delivery were unchanged to $3.49¾ a bushel in Chicago.

Chicago wheat for March delivery gained 1¾¢ to $4.31 a bushel overnight, and Kansas City futures rose ¾¢ to $4.28½ a bushel.


2. Corn, Soybean Acreage Each Seen at 91 Million Next Year, Yields Pegged Lower

Corn and soybean plantings will each total 91 million acres in 2018, while wheat acres decline, the USDA said in its long-term baseline forecast.

Corn area will stay on trend next year, though projected yields are pegged to fall almost 2 bushels an acre to 173.5 bushels, according to the USDA. Production would total 14.5 billion bushels, down 58 million from the projected 2017/2018 crop.

Ending stockpiles of corn will total 2.61 billion bushels at the end of the marketing year, up from 2.49 billion this year. Corn prices will average about $3.30 a bushel in the 2018/2019 marketing year, up from $3.20 this year, according to the USDA.

Soybean yield is projected at 48.4 bushels an acre, down 1.1 bushels from this year’s expected harvest, the agency said.

Ending stocks on August 31, 2019, will total 376 million bushels, down from 425 million a year earlier, according to the USDA. Soybean prices are projected to average about $9.40 a bushel in 2018/2019, up from $9.30 a bushel in the current marketing year.

Wheat plantings will fall by 1 million acres to 45 million in the 2018/2019 marketing year that starts on June 1.

Yields are pegged at 47.4 bushels an acre, up from 46.3 bushels this year, according to the report. Production is seen at 1.82 billion bushels.

Inventories of wheat at the end of the marketing year will total 813 million bushels, down from 935 million a year earlier, according to the USDA.


3. Red-Flag Warnings in Effect For Eastern South Dakota, Western Minnesota as Dryness Persists

A red-flag warning is in effect for each county in the eastern third of South Dakota and several counties in western Minnesota due to strong winds and low relative humidity.

Winds will be sustained from 25 to 35 mph today with gusts of up to 50 mph, the National Weather Service said in a morning report.

Humidity is pegged as low as 20%, which creates extremely dry conditions and raises the risk of wildfire in the area, according to the NWS. Any fires that develop will spread quickly.

High wind warnings have been issued in the western part of South Dakota with gusts there expected to top out at 65 mph, which is strong enough to knock down large trees and damage roofs and small outbuildings, the agency said.

High-profile vehicles are also at risk of being toppled by the strong gusts.

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