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3 Big Things Today, November 29, 2022

Soybeans Moderately Higher Overnight; Weekly Export Inspections Decline

1. Soybeans Slightly Higher, Grains Mixed Overnight

Soybeans were modestly higher in overnight trading while grains were mixed on unsettled weather in South American and U.S. growing areas.

In Brazil, the world's largest exporter of soybeans, short-term crop stress due to dry conditions is expected to expand to a third of soybean and corn-growing regions and almost half of sugar areas, but the area under stress will narrow from Friday through Tuesday, Commodity Weather Group said in a report.

About 15% of the country's soybeans and corn will be dry in the next six to 15 days, though models are showing some wetter risks to the forecast, CWG said.

It's the opposite in Argentina, where rains this week will reach about two-thirds of growing areas, though weather models show a trend toward the drier side, the forecaster said.

Snow is expected in parts of northwestern Kansas and eastern Colorado in the next 24 hours, according to the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center. Little precipitation is expected in the area through at least Thursday.

The same storm system will move into the eastern Midwest early tomorrow, bringing chances of rainfall to areas where soft-red winter wheat is growing, NWS said.

Traders also are keeping an eye on China, where protestors continue to take to the streets in a rare sign of dissent against the government's COVID-19 mitigation measures.

In Ukraine, meanwhile, ships filled with agricultural products from the war-torn country are lining up in Turkish waters as they await inspection, the United Nations said. More than 100 ships were waiting to be inspected yesterday.

Alexander Kubrakov, Ukraine's minister of infrastructure, has accused Russia of intentionally holding up inspections

Soybean futures for January delivery rose 4¾¢ to $14.62 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal dropped $2.30 to $409.40 a short ton while soy oil gained 0.34¢ to 73.46¢ a pound.

Corn for March delivery lost ¼¢ to $6.71 a bushel.

Wheat futures for March delivery rose 4½¢ to $7.85 ¼ a bushel, while Kansas City wheat added ¼¢ to $8.95 ¼ a bushel.

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2. Weekly Grain and Bean Export Inspections Fall

Inspections of grains and beans for overseas delivery all declined week-to-week, according to data from USDA.

Corn inspections in the seven days that ended on Nov. 24 declined to 302,350 metric tons, down from 499,068 tons a week earlier, and well below the 806,390 tons assessed during the same week a year earlier, the agency said in a report.

Examinations of wheat for export dropped to 198,519 metric tons from 291,427 tons. The total was about half of the 390,771 tons inspected at the same point last year.

Soybean assessments dropped to 2.02 million metric tons last week from 2.43 million tons, USDA said. That was also down from the 2.26 million tons examined during the same week in 2021.

Since the start of the marketing year on Sept. 1, the government has inspected 5.81 million metric tons of corn for offshore delivery. That's down from the 8.63 million tons assessed during the same timeframe a year earlier.

Soybean inspections since the beginning of September now stand at 19.2 million metric tons, down from 21.4 million tons during the same period last year, the agency said.

Wheat assessments since the start of the grain's marketing year on June 1 are now at 10.5 million metric tons, just behind the year-earlier level of 10.9 million tons, USDA said in its report.

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3. Winter Weather Expected From Colorado Through Wisconsin

Winter weather warnings have been issued in a long, narrow stretch of land from western Colorado to southern Nebraska, and north to the Wisconsin-Canada border, according to National Weather Service maps.

In central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, winter storm warnings are in effect until tonight, as up to 8 inches of snow is expected in the area, NWS said in a report early this morning. Travel is expected to be difficult.

In some areas, as much as 9 to 11 inches of snow may fall, the agency said.

Mixed precipitation is forecast for parts of western Iowa today as 2 to 4 inches of snow is expected, along with ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch, NWS said.

Winds are expected to gust up to 40 mph this afternoon.

"Plan on slippery road conditions," the agency said. "Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility."

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