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3 Big Things Today, November 5

Soybeans Lower in Overnight Trading; Money Managers Reduce Bullish Bets on Corn.

1. Soybean Futures Lower Overnight as Harvest Progresses

Soybean futures were lower in overnight trading as the harvest progresses in much of the Corn Belt.

The USDA is expected to report that 81% of the corn crop has been harvested as of Sunday in a report this morning, according to Allendale. That’s up from 63% last week. Soybean collection is expected to be 82% to 83% finished, up from 72% seven days ago.

Recent dry weather has helped growers in much of the Midwest get their crops in the bin, but some rainfall the first couple of days this week may slow progress, forecasters said.

Corn and wheat prices were little changed overnight, possibly as investors await this week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report from the USDA.

Soybeans for November delivery fell 3¾¢ to $8.84 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures were unchanged at $311 a short ton, and soy oil declined 0.14¢ to 28.06¢ a pound.

Corn futures fell ¾¢ to $3.70½ a bushel in Chicago.

Wheat for December delivery declined ¾¢ to $5.08 a bushel overnight, while Kansas City futures dropped ¾¢ to $5.03½ a bushel.

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2. Money Managers Reduce Net-Long Positions in Corn, Raise Bearish Bets on Beans

Speculators were less bullish on corn and more bearish on soybean in the week than ended on October 30, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Investors held net-long positions, or bets on higher prices, of 11,570 corn futures contracts last week, down from 27,903 futures contracts seven days earlier, the CFTC sad in a report. That’s a three-week low.

Fund managers and other large investors were still bearish on soybeans, holding net-short positions, or bets on lower prices, of 69,915 futures contracts as of last week. That’s the largest such position since the seven days that ended on September 18, the CFTC said.

Money managers are less optimistic about rising corn and soybean prices in recent weeks as the harvest progresses. About 63% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of last Sunday, up from 49% a week earlier, while 72% of soybeans were in the bin, up from 53%, according to the USDA.

The USDA will update crop progress in a report this morning.

In wheat, speculators were barely still bullish on hard red winter contracts, lowering their net-long positions to 6,723 futures contracts from 17,106 contracts the previous week. That’s the least bullish investors have been on the grain since January, CFTC data show.

Investors also increased their bearish positions in soft red winter wheat, raising net bets against higher prices to 47,928 contracts, the highest level since the seven days that ended on April 24.

The Weekly Commitment of Traders Report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline.

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3. Rain Expected in Parts of Missouri Monday, Severe Weather Possible Farther East

Rain is in the forecast for parts of northern Missouri and extreme eastern Kansas today, though the weather isn’t expected to be hazardous, according to the National Weather Service.

Temperatures in the area will be well below normal later this week, and while some rain and possibly snow are expected Thursday, no accumulation is predicted, the NWS said in a report early Monday morning.

In parts of southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois and Indiana, and western Kentucky, there’s a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some weather may turn severe, the agency said.

The biggest hazard will be strong winds, but some tornadoes may be a concern, as well, the NWS said. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to some flooding in the region.

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