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3 Big Things Today, November 5, 2020

Soybeans, Grains Jump Overnight; Ethanol Production Rises to Seven-Month High.

1. Soybeans and Grains Surge on Dry Brazil Weather

Soybeans and grains jumped in overnight trading as dry weather again spreads in Brazil, and there is some potential for rainfall in parts of the U.S. that could delay the last of the harvest.

Dryness is expected to build in western, central, and southern growing areas of Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of soybeans, according to Donald Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist with Maxar, in an emailed outlook.

Rains in northeastern parts of the country this week will boost soil moisture, he said.

Commodity Weather Group said it expects stress to expand to about 35% of Brazil’s soybean and corn growing areas and 20% of coffee-producing land.

In the longer-term outlook, CWG said up to a third of southern Brazil will remain dry, though there are chances for precipitation in the 16- to 30-day forecast.

Rain in the U.S. next week could delay what’s left of the harvest in the western two-thirds of the Midwest, the forecaster said in a report.

The 2020 race for president continues without a clear winner this morning as votes are still being tallied in four pivotal states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada.

The Associated Press and Fox News both have former Vice President Joe Biden leading with 264 electoral votes of the 270 needed to claim victory vs. President Donald Trump’s 214 while CBS News and NBC News show Biden with a narrower 253 electoral votes.

Soybean futures for January delivery surged 13¼¢ to $10.99½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal gained $3 to $388.70 a short ton, and soy oil added 0.69¢ to 35.08¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery were up 5¢ to $4.10½ a bushel.

Wheat futures for December delivery surged 10¾¢ at $6.16¾ a bushel in Chicago while Kansas City futures added 8½¢ to $5.68¼ a bushel.

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2. Ethanol Production Jumps to Seven-Month High, Stockpiles Also Rise

Ethanol production last week jumped to the highest level in more than seven months while inventories also improved, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Output of the biofuel increased to an average of 961,000 barrels a day in the week that ended on Oct. 30, the EIA said in a report.

That’s up from 941,000 barrels a day, on average, during the previous week and the largest weekly production since the seven days that ended on March 20, the agency said.

In the Midwest, by far the largest producing region, output surged to an average of 913,000 barrels a day from 896,000 the previous week. That’s also the largest amount since late March.

On the East Coast, production increased to an average of 13,000 barrels a day from 10,000 barrels the previous week, the government said.

Gulf Coast output was unchanged at 16,000 barrels a day, on average.

Rocky Mountain production was unchanged week-to-week at 10,000 barrels a day and West Coast output stayed at 9,000 barrels a day, the EIA said in its report.

Ethanol inventories, meanwhile, rose to 19.675 million barrels in the week that ended on Oct. 30, the agency said. That’s up from 19.601 million barrels the previous week.


3. Fire Watch in Effect Thursday in Parts of Northwestern Kansas and central Nebraska

A fire weather watch is in effect starting this morning and lasting into the afternoon for parts of northwestern Kansas into central Nebraska, according to the National Weather Service.

Relative humidity is expected to drop as low as 15% in the area with south winds sustained from 20 to 30 mph and gusts of up to 40 mph, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

“Outdoor burning is not advised,” the agency said.

In Oklahoma and northern Texas, fog is expected to reduce visibility to less than a mile on Interstate 35 just south of Interstate 20 this morning. A slight chance of precipitation is expected in the same area early next week, the NWS said.

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