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3 Big Things Today, November 8
1. Soybeans, Grains Higher Overnight Ahead of WASDE
Soybeans and grains were higher in early trading as traders square positions ahead of today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report.
Analysts said they expect the USDA to reduce its outlook for corn and soybean yield and production, albeit only slightly.
Along with the WASDE Report, investors are keeping an eye on several fundamental factors. Demand for corn has been robust so far this season, while soybean sales have been dismal, so many are watching the export sales report due out this morning to see if that changes.
Traders are also keeping a watch over the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China, which seems to have cooled slightly in recent days with presidents from both countries seemingly willing to at least attempt to find common ground.
Still, the advancing harvest is keeping a lid on prices. Some 76% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, up from 63% seven days earlier. About 83% of soybeans were collected, up from 72% the previous week, according to the USDA.
Soybeans for January delivery gained 2½¢ to $8.82 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures rose $1.20 to $309.20 a short ton, and soy oil declined 0.10¢ to 28.10¢ a pound.
Corn futures for December delivery gained 1½¢ to $3.73¾ a bushel overnight.
Wheat for December delivery rose 2¢ to $5.12¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures added 2¾¢ to $5.05 a bushel.
2. USDA Expected to Slightly Lower Yield, Production Forecasts For Corn, Beans
It’s a big report day with the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report and the Weekly Export Sales Report due.
The USDA is expected to lower its corn yield and production outlooks slightly from last month’s WASDE Report.
Analysts expect the USDA to peg corn yield at 180 bushels an acre and production at 14.721 billion bushels, according to researcher Allendale. That’s down from a yield of 180.7 bushels an acre and output of 14.778 billion bushels forecast by the government last month.
Soybean yields are expected to be projected by the agency at 52.9 bushels an acre with output of 4.676 billion bushels, Allendale said. The yield estimate is down from last month’s outlook for 53.1 bushels an acre, and the production forecast is lower than October’s 4.690 billion bushels.
Ending stockpiles for corn, meanwhile, likely will be pegged at 1.773 billion bushels, down from last month’s 1.813 billion-bushel estimate. Soybean inventories will probably be seen at 898 million bushels, up from October’s outlook for 885 million, while wheat stocks will come in at 958 million bushels, up slightly from 956 million forecast last month, Allendale said.
The Weekly Export Sales Report is due out this morning with analysts expecting corn sales from 600,000 to 900,000 metric tons, soybean sales from 400,000 to 700,000 tons, and wheat sales from 300,000 to 600,000 tons, the researcher said.
3. Freeze Warnings Issued in Oklahoma, Snow Forecast in Kansas Thursday Morning
Freeze warnings are in effect for the northern half of Oklahoma, while a freeze watch is in effect for the rest of the state, southwestern Missouri, and almost all of Arkansas.
Temperatures overnight will drop and stay in the low to mid-20s to low 30s, according to the National Weather Service. A hard freeze is possible in areas where temperatures hit the low 20s. The warning is in effect starting tonight and will last through Friday morning, the NWS said in a report early Thursday morning.
Farther north, a winter weather advisory has been issued for much of Kansas. Snow accumulations of up to 2 inches are expected in the state starting this morning.
“A streak of light to moderate overrunning snow will impact the Midwest, from Kansas and Nebraska toward the mid-Mississippi Valley,” the NWS said in its report. “A few inches of snow will be possible.”