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3 Big Things Today, November 8, 2021

Wheat Futures Rise Overnight; Investors Raise Net-Longs in Corn, Beans.

1. Wheat Futures Rise in Overnight Trading

Wheat futures were higher overnight on continued global demand for the grain and as prices in Russia rise, making U.S. supplies more attractive on the world market.

Egypt last week issued a tender for delivery in December and ended up buying 180,000 metric tons of Russian wheat.

Wheat prices in Russia are on the rise, up $2 to $327 a metric ton, according to data from Russian consultancy SovEcon.

Andrey Sizov, the editor of the Sizov Report, which reports on Russian wheat production and trade, said Russian wheat exports have been slowing since October due to a relatively strong ruble, tight domestic supplies, and the country’s export tax on the grain.

Higher Russian wheat prices may push buyers to at least consider U.S. supplies.

Still, exports of wheat from Russia likely will continue to be supported as the country is regaining its competitive edge on the global market, as evidenced by Egypt’s purchase, Sizov said in a video to clients.

Corn and beans were little changed as investors focus on this week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Analysts expect the USDA to increase its outlook for soybeans and corn production from month-earlier forecasts, according to a Reuters survey. The agency’s forecast for soybean stockpiles likely will rise while corn inventories likely will fall.

The government report is due out Tuesday.

Wheat futures for December delivery gained 4¾¢ to $7.71¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures rose 2½¢ to $7.81¼ a bushel.

Corn futures for December delivery were up ¾¢ at $5.53¾ a bushel.

Soybean futures for November delivery fell 1¢ to $12.04½ a bushel. Soymeal declined $1 to $331.70 short ton, while soy oil gained 0.43¢ to 59.21¢ a pound.

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2. Investors Raise Bullish Bets on Corn to Six-Month High

Money managers last week raised their net-long positions, or bets on higher prices, in corn to the highest level in almost six months while also raising their bullish bets on beans.

Investors held a net-318,824 corn futures contracts as of Nov. 2, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in a report.

That’s up from 235,207 contracts a week earlier and the highest level since the seven days that ended on May 4, CFTC data show.

Speculators also raised their net-longs in soybeans to a net-43,008 contracts last week, up from 24,760 contracts a week earlier.

That marks the largest bullish position since Oct. 5, the agency said.

In wheat, fund managers and other large investors held a net-long position of 56,041 hard-red winter futures contracts, up from 51,843 contracts a week earlier.

Last week’s position is the biggest since the seven days that ended on Feb. 16, government data show.

In soft-red winter wheat, investors held a net-4,612 contracts as of Nov. 2.

That’s a shift from a net-short position, or bets on lower prices, of 11,571 contracts the previous week and the biggest bullish position since Aug. 31, the CFTC said in its report.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline.

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3. Winter Weather Forecast in Parts of South Dakota

Winter weather is expected in parts of western South Dakota today with up to 3 inches of snow possible, according to the National Weather Service.

Rain and snow showers are possible starting this morning with a second wave hitting the region later this evening, the NWS said.

Windy conditions will prevail tomorrow with more rain and snow showers forecast for Wednesday.

Limited fire weather is possible today in parts of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, the agency said.

Winds will gust up to 30 mph across the region, creating extremely dry conditions, the NWS said in a report.

The dry weather will give way to a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday as a cold front moves into the area.

“A few strong to severe storms are possible along with locally heavy rainfall,” the NWS said.

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