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3 Big Things Today, November 9

Soybeans Higher, Grains Little Changed; USDA Likely to Raise Corn, Lower Bean Estimates.

1. Soybeans Higher Overnight, Grains Little Changed Ahead of WASDE

Soybeans were slightly higher overnight, while corn and wheat were little changed ahead of today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report.

Prices have been mostly chopping around inside a range, but soybeans broke above the important psychological $10 barrier overnight.

Much of the price increase is likely position-squaring ahead of the report. Analysts said they expect the USDA will raise its corn yield and production forecasts while lowering those for soybeans.

Fund managers and other speculative investors are extremely short on corn, or have a sizeable bet against prices, so any bullish surprise may send shockwaves through the market.

Soybean futures for January delivery rose 4¢ to $10.02½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal added $3.20 to $318.40 a short ton, and soy oil fell 0.16¢ to 35.21¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery was up ¼¢ to $3.48½ a bushel overnight.

Wheat for December delivery rose ¼¢ to $4.27 a bushel in Chicago. Kansas City futures were unchanged at $4.27½ a bushel.


2. USDA Likely to Raise Corn Yield, Production Outlook, Lower Soybean Forecasts

The USDA, in a monthly report, will likely raise its estimate for corn yield and production from last month while lowering its soybean output forecast, according to analysts.

Corn production will likely be pegged at 14.33 billion bushels on yields of 172.4 bushels an acre, according to market participants surveyed by Reuters.

That’s up from October’s government forecast for 14.28 billion bushels and yields of 171.8 bushels an acre.

Harvested area will likely come in around 83.1 million, little changed from the month-ago outlook.

Soybean production likely will be seen at 4.408 billion bushels in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report, the analysts said.

Yields will probably be pegged at 49.3 bushels per acre. Those are down from the October WASDE projections of 4.431 billion bushels and yields of 49.5 bushels an acre.

Harvested soybean area will likely come in around 89.5 million acres, also little changed from the month-ago forecast.


3. Freezing Drizzle Expected in Nebraska, Kansas; Snowfall Forecast in Michigan, Indiana

Freezing drizzle may fall in parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas starting today and lasting through the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.

The chances that the freezing drizzle will fall are fairly small. If it does fall, it could make for some slick conditions and potentially be a negative for uncovered winter wheat and any corn or beans that are still in the field.

Farther east, light snow is possible tonight in parts of lower Michigan, northern Indiana, and northwest Ohio, the NWS said in a early Thursday report. Gusty winds are also possible in the area tonight reaching as high as 35 mph.

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