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3 Big Things Today, November 9, 2022

Wheat Futures Down Modestly; WASDE Not Expected to Change Much

1. Wheat Futures Slightly Lower in Overnight Trading

Wheat futures were modestly lower while soybeans and corn were little changed in overnight trading as investors weigh geopolitical turmoil, the preliminary results of the U.S. midterm elections, and today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the Department of Agriculture.

Around 4 million people in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, were without power yesterday due to attacks on the country's infrastructure by Russian forces, according to several media reports.

Russia has been on the offensive in Ukraine since February.

The countries are still participating in an agreement allowing Ukrainian agricultural products to be shipped from its ports, though the deal is set to end this month. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he's hopeful an extension of the agreement will be brokered before its expiration.

Midterm elections in the U.S. weren't definitive as of Wednesday morning as control of the House of Representatives and the Senate hung in the balance.

Fox News polls show Republicans and Democrats each hold control over 48 seats, with 51 needed to control the Senate. Republicans reportedly have control over 199 House seats versus Democrats' 172. Parties need to 218 seats to control the House.

Traders also will be keeping an eye on today's WASDE report from USDA, though few changes to the U.S. balance sheet are expected in the report.

Wheat futures for December delivery fell 4¢ to $8.23 ¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures dropped 3¼¢ to $9.42 ½ a bushel.

Soybean futures for January delivery rose 1¼¢ to $14.47 ¾ a bushel. Soymeal added $2 to $421.30 a short ton, while soybean oil dropped 0.41¢ to 74.62¢ a pound.

Corn for December delivery was down 1¢ to $6.66 ½ a bushel.

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2. WASDE Not Expected to Change Drastically From October

It's WASDE day for November and analysts aren't expecting many changes in the USDA's balance sheet.

Corn production the 2022-2023 marketing year that started on Sept. 1 will likely be forecast by the agency at 13.893 billion bushels, according to analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield is pegged at 171.9 bushels an acre.

That would be down narrowly from the government's October outlook for 13.895 billion bushels, and well below the 15.074 billion bushels farmers harvested last year.

Yield last month also was seen at 171.9 bushels an acre, and growers last year produced 176.7 bushels an acre, government data shows.

Soybean production likely will be forecast at 4.324 billion bushels on yield of 49.9 bushels an acre, WSJ reported.

That'd be up slightly from the month-ago projection of 4.313 billion bushels, and yield in September was projected at 49.8 bushels an acre.

In the 2021-2022 marketing year, producers collected 4.465 billion bushels of soybeans on yield of 51.7 bushels an acre, according to data from the USDA.

Analysts also are expecting the agency to raise its outlook for corn, beans and wheat inventories in today's report.

Corn stocks are projected by analysts at 1.212 billion bushels, up from the 1.172 billion forecast last month. Soybean inventories are likely to be seen at 215 million bushels, up from the October outlook for 200 million, the WSJ poll showed.

Wheat stockpiles likely will be forecast at 577 million bushels, up narrowly from the 576 million expected in October.

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3. Winter Storms Headed to Northern Plains, NWS Says

Winter storms are rumbling through the northern Plains while dry weather remains over the southern Plains, according to National Weather Service maps.

Blizzard warnings have been issued for parts of the Dakotas starting at 6 p.m. local time tonight and running through midnight Thursday, NWS said in a report early this morning.

Snow accumulations are forecast from 5 to 10 inches with ice buildup of about a tenth of an inch, the agency said. Winds will gust as high as 45 mph tonight and wind chills are forecast to drop to minus-20 degrees Fahrenheit.

"Travel could be very difficult," NWS said. "Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility."

In southwestern Kansas, meanwhile, winds are projected to be sustained from 30 to 40 mph with gusts of up to 60 mph in the forecast.

A high-wind warning is in effect in the area from noon today through 7 p.m. central time, the agency said.

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