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3 Big Things Today, October 10

Soybeans Slightly Lower Overnight; Weekly Export Inspections For Corn, Beans Decline.

1. Soybeans Modestly Lower on Drier Weather, WASDE Forecasts

Soybeans were modestly lower overnight on forecasts for drier weather in parts of the Midwest that have been getting hammered by rain for the past two weeks.

Rainfall that’s kept farmers out of fields in some areas including eastern Iowa are likely to subside later this week, which should allow harvest delays to ease, forecaster Radiant Solutions said in a report.

As much as six times the normal amount of rain has fallen in the past two weeks in a wide band that stretches from West Texas to northern Wisconsin, according to the National Weather Service. Commodity Weather Group’s David Streit said the northern and western Corn Belts should see some drying down.

The corn and soybean harvest kept up surprisingly well last week despite the rain. About 34% of the U.S. corn crop was in the bin as of Sunday, up 8 percentage points from the prior week, while 32% of soybeans were collected, a 9 percentage-point gain, the USDA said.

Beans also may be declining overnight on speculation that the USDA will raise its outlook for ending stockpiles to 898 million bushels from 845 million in a monthly report tomorrow, according to Allendale.

The USDA likely will raise its inventories estimate for corn to 1.919 billion bushels, up from 1.774 billion in September. Wheat stocks are pegged at 950 million bushels, up from 935 million a month earlier, Allendale said.

Soybeans for November delivery lost 2¾¢ to $8.60¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures fell 70¢ to $317.10 a short ton, and soy oil declined 0.05¢ to 29.21¢ a pound.

Corn for December delivery was unchanged at $3.64½ a bushel overnight.

Wheat for December delivery dropped 2¼¢ to $5.12¾ a bushel overnight, while Kansas City futures declined 2¢ to $5.17½ a bushel.

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2. Export Inspections of Corn, Soybeans Lower Week to Week, Wheat Assessments Rise

Export inspections of corn and soybeans were lower week to week, while wheat assessments rose, according to the USDA.

USDA inspectors assessed 1.35 million metric tons of corn for overseas delivery in the seven days that ended on October 4, down from 1.38 million tons a week earlier, the USDA said in a report that was delayed due to Columbus Day.

Soybean assessments totaled 569,776 metric tons last week, down from 630,249 tons, the government said in its report.

Wheat inspections, meanwhile, rose to 423,270 metric tons last week, up from 371,991 tons seven days earlier, according to the USDA.

Despite the week-to-week decline, demand for U.S. corn has been extremely strong compared with last year. Inspections of the grain since the start of the marketing year on September 1 are up to 5.81 million tons from 3.58 million during the same period last year.

The opposite is true for soybeans and wheat.

The USDA has inspected 3.54 million metric tons of soybeans for overseas delivery since September 1, down from 5.46 million tons during the year-ago time frame, the USDA said.

Wheat inspections since the start of the grain’s marketing year on June 1 are at 7.34 million metric tons, down from 10.3 million tons during the same period in 2017, according to the government.

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3. More Rain, Flooding Expected in Parts of Iowa, Wisconsin Today

Despite calls for drier weather later this week and into the weekend, there are still some pockets of heavy rain in the Corn Belt, according to the National Weather Service.

Flood warnings and flash flood watches are still in effect for dozens of counties stretching from northeastern Missouri into northern Wisconsin.

“Showers with moderate to locally heavy downpours will lift northward across (eastern Iowa and western Illinois) through daybreak,” the NWS said in a report early Wednesday morning. “Minor flooding of small streams, creeks, and roadways is possible. Visibility will also be reduced at times.”

Storms in the area likely will continue through this afternoon. Any rain will fall on saturated ground and could lead to flash flooding. Much colder weather is expected later this week, and widespread frost is likely Thursday and Friday, the agency said.

Farther north in Wisconsin, there’s a chance for thunderstorms that could be severe. Locally heavy rainfall and strong winds are the main threats, the NWS said.

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