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3 Big Things Today, October 11

Soybeans, Grains Lower Overnight; Analysts Expect USDA to Raise Corn, Bean WASDE Forecasts.

1. Soybeans, Corn Lower on Drier Weather, WASDE Concerns

Soybeans and corn were again lower overnight on speculation that dry weather in the coming days will help dry out fields enough that farmers will be able to harvest their crops, and as today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report looms.

As much as six times the normal amount of rain has fallen in parts of the Great Plains and Midwest, including much of Iowa and Wisconsin, in the past two weeks, according to the National Weather Service.

Drier weather should start today, though temperatures are expected to plunge, and flooding is still a problem in areas where rivers and streams are still over their banks.

Analysts said in various reports that they expect the USDA to raise its forecasts for corn and soybean production and ending stockpiles.

Soybeans for November delivery lost 2¾4¢ to $8.49½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures fell $1 to $314.70 a short ton, and soy oil declined 0.13¢ to 28.80¢ a pound.

Corn for December delivery fell 1¼¢ to $3.61½ a bushel overnight.

Wheat for December delivery dropped ¾¢ to $5.09¾ a bushel overnight, while Kansas City futures declined ½¢ to $5.15¾ a bushel.

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2. Analysts Expect USDA Will Raise Corn, Soybean Production, Stockpiles Estimates

Analysts are expecting the USDA to raise its forecasts for corn and soybean production and ending stocks to increase in today’s WASDE Report.

The USDA’s corn production projections for the 2018-2019 marketing year that started on September 1 likely will be raised from last month’s 14.827 billion-bushel estimate to a range of 14.851 billion to 14.859 billion bushels, according to analysts. Yield projections range from 181.3 bushels an acre to 181.8 bushels an acre.

Harvested acres are forecast at 81.7 million to 81.8 million, according to analyst surveys.

Ending stocks of the grain are pegged at 1.913 billion to 1.919 billion bushels, up from the USDA’s September outlook for 1.774 billion bushels.

The government is expected to raise its soybean production outlook to a range of 4.722 billion to 4.733 billion bushels on yields of 53.3 to 53.4 bushels an acre, according to analysts. In September, the USDA forecast production at 4.693 billion bushels on yields of 52.8 bushels an acre.

Soybean inventories at the end of the 2018-2019 marketing year are expected to rise to a range of 860 million to 905 million bushels from last month’s projection of 845 million.

Wheat ending stocks are seen at 950 million bushels, up from the September estimate of 935 million, Allendale said.

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3. Rainfall Gives Way to Cold in Central U.S., Freeze Warnings Issued

Extremely wet weather has given way to extremely cold weather in parts of the Plains and Midwest, while Hurricane Michael wreaks havoc in the southeast, according to the National Weather Service.

Freeze warnings have been issued in parts of several states including western Kansas, central Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota, northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois.

Temperatures in northern Kansas and central Nebraska are expected to fall into the mid-teens this morning, the NWS said in a report early Thursday morning. The coldest temperatures are forecast for northwestern Nebraska.

A hard-freeze warning, meanwhile, has been issued in parts of western Kansas and two counties in eastern Colorado where temperatures fell from 24˚F. to 28˚F. for several hours overnight, the agency said.

In the southeast, meanwhile, tropical storm warnings, flood warnings, and coastal flood warnings have all been issued for all or parts of the Carolinas after Hurricane Michael slammed into Florida with 140 mph winds yesterday.

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