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334668

3 Big Things Today, October 12, 2022

Grains, Soybeans Lower Overnight; Weekly Export Inspections Mixed

1. Wheat, Corn and Soybean Futures Fall Overnight

Grains and soybeans were lower in overnight trading as investors square positions ahead of today's government reports.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and crop production reports at noon in Washington.

The agency will likely forecast corn production of 13.885 billion bushels on yield of 171.8 bushels an acre, according to analysts polled by Reuters. That would be down from the USDA's September outlook for output of 13.944 billion bushels on yield of 172.5 bushels an acre.

Corn stockpiles at the end of the 2022-2023 marketing year likely will be pegged at 1.124 billion bushels, the analysts said. Last month, USDA forecast inventories at 1.219 billion bushels.

Soybean production, meanwhile, likely will be seen at 4.381 billion bushels on yield of 50.5 bushels an acre, the Reuters poll said. In September, the agency projected output of 4.378 billion bushels on yield of 50.5 bushels an acre.

The government's soybean inventories outlook likely will jump to 248 million bushels, the analysts said, up from 200 million bushels expected last month.

Wheat stocks were forecast by analysts at 554 million bushels, down from the previous projection of 610 million bushels.

Prices are under pressure as the corn and soybean harvests roll on and as winter-wheat planting continues.

Thirty-one percent of the corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, up from 20% a week earlier and an increase from the prior five-year average of 30%, the USDA said.

About 44% of soybeans were in the bin at the start of the week, double the previous week and up from the average of 38% for this time of year.

Roughly 55% of winter wheat was planted in the U.S., up from 40% a week earlier but behind the normal 58%, the government said. Twenty-six percent of the crop had emerged as of Sunday, up week-to-week from 15%, but trailing the five-year average of 32%.

Wheat futures for December delivery fell 7 ¾¢ to $8.93 ¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures lost 6¢ to $9.84 ¾ a bushel.

Corn futures for December delivery were down 2¢ to $6.91 a bushel.

Soybean futures for November delivery declined 1 ¾¢ to $13.74 ¾ a bushel. Soymeal dropped $1.60 to $404.40 a short ton, while soybean oil fell 0.15¢ to $65.32 a pound.

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2. Export Inspections of Soybeans Surge Week-to-Week

Inspections of soybeans for overseas delivery jumped week-to-week while corn and wheat assessments declined, according to USDA.

Soybean inspections jumped to 969,212 metric tons in the seven days that ended on Oct. 6, the Ag Department said in a report. That's up from 585,271 metric tons a week earlier, but still down from the 1.74 million metric tons examined during the same week last year.

Corn assessments, however, declined to 457,366 metric tons from 672,835 tons the previous week and well below the 850,831 tons inspected a year earlier, the agency said.

Examinations of wheat for export fell to 614,171 metric tons from 667,577 tons. Last week's inspections were up from the 446,896 metric tons assessed at the same point in 2021.

Since the start of the marketing year on Sept. 1, USDA has inspected 2.76 million metric tons of soybeans for overseas shipping, down from the 3.58 million tons examined in the same timeframe a year earlier.

Corn examinations since the beginning of September now stand at 2.83 million metric tons, down from the 3.12 million tons assessed during the same period last year, the agency said.

Wheat inspections since the start of the grain's marketing year on June 1 are now at 9.13 million metric tons, just behind the year-earlier total of 9.2 million tons, USDA said in its report.

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3. Red-Flag Warnings Stretch From North Dakota to Kansas

Dry weather has spread as red-flag warnings have now been issued for a long stretch of land from the Canadian border south into northern Kansas, according to National Weather Service maps.

In North Dakota, winds today will range from 25 to 35 mph with gusts of up to 55 mph, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

Relative humidity will drop as low as 25%.

In east-central Nebraska winds will gust up to 45 mph this afternoon and humidity will drop as low as 17%.

"Any fires that ignite may spread rapidly and exhibit extreme fire behavior," the agency said. "Use extreme caution if engaging in activities that could result in fire ignition."

Further east, rain is expected in parts of central Indiana today.

Some storms may turn strong with gusty winds ranging from 35 to 40 mph and lightning, the NWS said.

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Will you have enough on-farm storage for harvest?

I just want to see the responses
45% (30 votes)
Yes
37% (25 votes)
No, it’s going to be a bin-buster
9% (6 votes)
Maybe, depending on yields
4% (3 votes)
No, I am looking at new bins or temporary storage
4% (3 votes)
Total votes: 67
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