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3 Big Things Today, October 13, 2022

Grains, Soybeans Little Changed Overnight; Corn, Bean Production Outlooks Fall

1. Corn, Beans Slightly Lower in Overnight Trading

Corn futures were modestly lower in overnight trading after reports that China will import supplies from Brazil rather than the United States.

Soybeans also were down narrowly in overnight trading.

More than 45 facilities in Brazil have been approved to export corn to China. The exact number isn't yet known, as more approvals could be on the way amid strong demand, Bloomberg reported, citing a list of the facilities.

China rarely buys corn from Brazil due to phytosanitary standards, the report said.

The Asia nation likely will import 18 million metric tons of corn in the 2022-2023 marketing year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast in a report yesterday. If realized, that would be down from the 22 million tons it imported a year earlier.

Brazil, meanwhile, is projected to export 47 million metric tons of the grain this year, making it the second largest shipper of corn behind only the U.S., USDA data shows. That would be up from 44.5 million tons the country exported last year.

Prices were little changed as investors watch the weather in the U.S.

Around 31% of U.S. was harvested as of Sunday, up from 20% a week earlier and an increase from the prior five-year average of 30%, the USDA said in a report this week.

Forty-four percent of soybeans were in the bin at the start of the week, double the previous week and up from the average of 38% for this time of year.

Roughly 55% of winter wheat was planted in the U.S., up from 40% a week earlier, but behind the normal 58%, the government said. Twenty-six percent of the crop had emerged as of Sunday, up week-to-week from 15% but trailing the five-year average of 32%.

Corn futures for December delivery were down 2¢ to $6.91 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean futures for November delivery declined 3¢ to $13.93 a bushel. Soymeal rose $1.50 to $415.80 a short ton, while soybean oil fell 0.44¢ to $65.15 a pound.

Wheat futures for December delivery rose 2¢ to $8.84 ¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures added 1 ½¢ to $9.71 ½ a bushel.

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2. Corn, Bean Production Forecasts Down Month-to-Month

Corn production was pegged by the USDA at 13.895 billion bushels, down from the 13.944 billion bushels forecast a month earlier, USDA said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report yesterday.

That was pretty much on par with the 13.885 billion bushels forecast by analysts polled by Reuters.

Yield is now projected at 171.9 bushels an acre, down from the previous outlook for 172.5 bushels an acre, but also in line with analyst expectations for 171.8 bushels an acre.

Soybean output, meanwhile, is now seen by the government at 4.313 billion bushels, down from the September forecast for 4.378 billion bushels, USDA said. Yield is now expected at 49.8 billion bushels, missing the prior estimate for 50.5 bushels an acre.

Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting production of 4.381 billion bushels on yield of 50.5 bushels an acre.

Corn inventories at the end of the marketing year were pegged at 1.172 billion bushels, down from the previous forecast for 1.219 billion, USDA said. That was above the 1.124 billion bushels projected in the poll.

Soybean stockpiles are expected at about 200 million bushels, unchanged month-to-month, USDA said, but down from the analyst outlook for 248 million bushels.

Wheat inventories were forecast by USDA at 576 million bushels, down from the 610 million expected in September, the government said in its report. Analysts were expecting stocks of 554 million bushels.


3. Red-Flag Warnings Issued as Dry Weather Spreads South, East

Red-flag warnings have taken over the weather maps this morning as dry weather now extends from North Dakota, south to Oklahoma, and east from Nebraska to Indiana, according to the National Weather Service.

In northwestern Iowa, winds will be sustained from 25 to 35 mph, with gusts of up to 55 miles per hour expected, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

Relative humidity will fall as low as 15%.

Winds in southern Missouri and northern Arkansas are expected to range from 12 to 20 miles per hour today while humidity values will fall as low as 25%, the agency said.

"Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly," the NWS said. "Outdoor burning is not recommended."

Further north, high-wind advisories have been issued for much of western North Dakota and northwestern South Dakota, the agency said.

Winds will gust as high as 60 mph today and tonight, potentially damaging trees and power lines. Travel is expected to be difficult, especially for high-profile vehicles, the NWS said.

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Will you have enough on-farm storage for harvest?

I just want to see the responses
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