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3 Big Things Today, October 25, 2022

Grains, Beans Lower Overnight; Export Inspections of Soybeans, Corn Rise

1. Grain and Soybean Futures Lower Overnight

Grain and soybean futures were lower in overnight trading amid favorable weather in parts of the U.S. and South America.

Rain expected in parts of the eastern Midwest and Delta this week and again in the 11 to 15-day outlook is likely to boost crop prospects in the regions, the Commodity Weather Group said in a note to clients.

The precipitation may also lead to a modest increase in water flows along the lower Mississippi River, CWG said.

Over the weekend, rain fell in parts of the Pacific Northwest that "significantly improved" soil moisture and will help with wheat establishment, the forecaster said. More rain is in the 10-day forecast.

In Brazil, the world's largest exporter of soybeans, rain in the next 10 days will likely limit stress in southern growing areas, though that could curb wheat quality.

Rainfall in Argentina over the weekend and today and tomorrow will reduce short-term stress to about 40% of the country, the forecaster said.

Still, some weather models are calling for stress to build in the southeastern half of Brazil's corn and soybean areas, and in three-fourths of Argentina's growing regions, CWG said in its report.

Brazil is forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to produce 152 million metric tons of the oilseeds in the 2022-2023 marketing year. If realized, that would be up from 127 million metric tons a year earlier, USDA said in a report last week.

Argentina, meanwhile, is projected to produce 51 million metric tons, up from 44 million tons last year, the agency said.

Wheat futures for December delivery lost 7 ¾¢ to $8.31 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures dropped 9¢ to $9.29 a bushel.

Corn for December delivery was down 3 ½¢ to $6.78 a bushel.

Soybean futures for November delivery dropped 1¢ to $13.80 ½ a bushel. Soymeal rose 70¢ to $409.40 a short ton, while soybean oil lost 0.36¢ to 71.51¢ a pound.

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2. Weekly Export Inspections of Soybeans, Corn Rise

Inspections of soybeans for overseas delivery jumped week-to-week, according to the U.S. Ag Department.

Corn assessments were slightly higher, while examinations of wheat declined.

Soybean inspections rose to 2.89 million metric tons in the seven days that ended on Oct. 20, up from 1.92 million a week earlier, USDA said in a report.

The total also was up from the 2.57 million metric tons assessed during the same week last year.

Examinations of corn for offshore delivery improved to 470,623 metric tons from 459,696 tons last week, but was down from the 634,864 tons inspected at the same point in 2021, the agency said.

Wheat inspections, meanwhile, dropped to 125,582 metric tons from 233, 937 tons a week earlier and 197,479 tons a year earlier, the government said.

Since the start of the marketing year on Sept. 1, USDA has inspected 7.6 million metric tons of soybeans for export, down from the 8.6 million tons assessed during the same timeframe a year earlier.

Corn inspections since the beginning of September now stand at 3.77 million metric tons, down from the 4.8 million tons examined during the same period last year.

Wheat assessments since the start of the grain's marketing year on June 1 are now at 9.49 million metric tons, down from the 9.44 million tons inspected at the same pint a year ago, USDA said in its report.


3. Dry Weather in Southern Plains May Give Way to Showers

Dry weather is expected in parts of the southern Plains today, which could create "elevated" fire conditions, according to the National Weather Service.

Wind gusts in southwestern Kansas are forecast from 40 to 50 mph today and tonight, NWS said in a report early this morning. Relative humidity will remain low.

Still, some showers are possible this morning across parts of central and southern Oklahoma, and showers are in the forecast Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

"Strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms may occur, especially across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas," NWS said.

Further east, wind advisories have been issued for much of Oklahoma and parts of Arkansas.

Winds will be sustained from 15 to 20 mph with gusts of up to 45 mph expected, the agency said.

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