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3 Big Things Today, October 28, 2022

Soybeans, Grains Rise Overnight; Weekly Export Sales Mostly Lower

1. Soybean, Grain Futures Drop in Overnight Trading

Soybean and grain futures were lower in overnight trading on forecasts for favorable weather conditions in the U.S. and South America.

As much as six times the normal amount of rain has fallen in the past week in parts of Missouri and Arkansas where soft-red winter wheat is growing, according to the National Weather Service's precipitation page.

The precipitation in the past seven days was centered over southern Missouri and reached several states including Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas, the weather maps show.

In South America, rains this week favored parts of Rio Grande do Sul and northern Bahia, Don Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist at Maxar, said in a note to clients.

Precipitation in parts of Rio Grande do Sul and northern Mato Grosso — both major growing states — will boost soil moisture, he said. Further improvements are expected in northeastern areas next week.

In Argentina, rainfall in parts of several states including Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and Buenos Aires will improve soil moisture "a bit," though dry weather and stress will start to build again next week, Keeney said.

Brazil is forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to produce a record 152 million metric tons of soybeans this year, which if realized, would be up from 127 million tons a year earlier.

Argentina's production is expected at around 51 million metric tons, which would be up from 44 million tons last year, USDA said.

Soybean futures for January delivery dropped 7½¢ to $13.86 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal fell $1 to $414.40 a short ton, while soybean oil lost 0.55¢ to 71.75¢ a pound.

Corn for December delivery was down 2¼¢ to $6.80 a bushel.

Wheat futures for December delivery fell 7¢ to $8.31 ½ a bushel, while Kansas City futures dropped 9½¢ to 9.22 ¾ a bushel.

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2. Corn, Bean Export Sales Drop Week-to-Week

Sales of corn and beans to overseas buyers plunged week-to-week while wheat sales improved, according to data from USDA.

Corn sales in the week that ended on Oct. 20 totaled 264,000 metric tons, the agency said in a report. That's down from 408,300 metric tons a week earlier.

China was the big buyer of U.S. corn at 157,800 metric tons, followed by Mexico at 109,700 tons, and Canada at 28,400 tons. Japan took 18,200 tons and Trinidad and Tobago bought 11,000 tons, USDA said.

The total would've been higher, but an unnamed country canceled shipments of 65,700 tons, and Colombia nixed cargoes of 14,000 tons.

Exports for the week were reported at 619,000 tons, up from 407,200 tons the previous week, the government said.

Soybean sales were lower at 1.03 million metric tons, down from 2.34 million tons a week earlier, USDA said.

China took 1.11 million metric tons, Japan bought 119,300 tons, Pakistan was in for 68,000 tons, Mexico purchased 63,600 tons, and Egypt bought 58,200 tons. An unnamed buyer canceled orders for 487,000 tons, the agency said.

Exports came in at 2.75 million metric tons, up from 1.9 million tons a week earlier.

Wheat sales to overseas buyers, meanwhile, jumped to 533,000 metric tons from 163,100 tons, the government said.

South Korea bought 109,500 metric tons, an unknown destination took 91,000 tons, the Philippines was in for 66,500 tons, Japan purchased 54,100 tons, and Mexico bought 49,100 tons.

Exports for the week were reported at 136,800 tons, down from 242,600 tons the previous week, USDA said in its report.  

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3. Rainfall Expected in Parts of Southern Plains Friday

Weather maps are relatively quiet this morning, though widespread showers are forecast for parts of the southern Plains today, according to the National Weather Service.

Some strong storms remain possible yet this morning in parts of west-central Texas.

"The main hazards are hail, gusty winds and lighting," NWS said in a report early this morning. "During the day today, additional showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of the area may result in minor, localized flooding."

Parts of southern and central Oklahoma also will see some thunderstorms today and tonight.

Further north in central Kansas, extremely dry weather starting tomorrow will increase the chance of wildfires, the agency said.

Gusty winds, low humidity, and high temperatures will combine to create dry conditions next week, NWS said.

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