3 Big Things Today, September 10, 2020

Investors await Friday’s USDA Reports.

1. Ag markets seen mixed, dollar lower

In overnight trading, the Dec. corn futures are ¾¢ higher at $3.61. March corn futures ½¢ higher at $3.71¾.
 
Nov. soybean futures are 3¢ lower at $9.75¼. January soybean futures are 3¼¢ lower at $9.80.

Dec. wheat futures are 4¢ higher at $5.47½. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $1.20 per short ton lower at $316.90. Dec. soy oil futures are 0.10¢ lower at 33.11¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are expected to fall.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the corn market has support, but the bulls may need more fuel, if the prices are to go higher.

“The impressive daily export sales announcements over the past few weeks coupled with a drier August has given the bulls the fuel for this rally. Corn prices have managed to maintain trading within a nickel of the summer highs but have not been able to gain momentum on a push above those highs,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Kluis added, “The charts are flashing multiple signals of a turn in trend. The bulls have pushed momentum indicators deep into overbought territory. If the USDA report on Friday is friendly, will it be friendly enough to keep the bull camp happy.”

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2. USDA’s Sept. Supply/Demand Estimates

On Friday, the USDA will release its September Supply/Demand and World Production Reports.

Jerry Gidel, Midland Research, says that the trade is expecting market-friendly numbers.

“This year’s season-long drought and the derecho in Iowa, August dryness in parts of eastern Corn Belt, and declining U.S. crop ratings have the trade expecting a decline in the size of U.S. corn and soybean crops,” Gidel stated in a daily note to customers.

Gidel added that, since crop tours are finding reduced soybean pod counts and fewer corn ears vs. 2019 checks, it could mean lower crop size estimates in Friday’s reports.

“This suggests that the USDA’s August 181.8 and 53.3 bu U.S. corn & soybean yields can be reduced. The USDA resurvey of Iowa’s harvested area is likely to reveal 250,000 to 300,000 in lost corn acres from last month’s derecho that crossed central Iowa, leaving many fields flat and unharvestable.”
 
The USDA will release its reports at 11:00 a.m. CT.

3. Rainfall To Continue, Temps To Warm

On Thursday, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters expected the winter storm that blanketed part of the Rockies and Central High Plains with snow to wind down.

Although, a few areas in the Central Rockies could have additional heavy snowfall today, according to the NWS.

“The cold air associated with this cold front will moderate to near normal by the weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain well below average today and Friday across much of the central/southern Rockies into the central/southern Plains, but temperatures are not expected to be as below average as in past days,” the NWS forecasters stated.

“The slow moving frontal boundary that is sprawled across the central U.S. will continue to provide a focus for heavy showers and thunderstorms today across the southern Plains,” the NWS forecasters stated Thursday. 

Despite warming temperatures coming from the western cold front, the NWS office in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, still has a frost advisory in effect.

“Nevertheless, a frost advisory remains in effect for any region where some thinning in cloud cover could introduce a threat of frost. The deep polar trough that brought record-cold temperatures for many moves east today. Lingering light precipitation over northwest Iowa exits with the trough later this morning, with dry conditions in its wake,” according to the NWS forecasters.

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