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3 Big Things Today, September 15, 2021

Soybeans, Corn Rise Overnight; Canadian Wheat Output Expected to Plunge.

1. Soybeans, Corn Higher in Overnight Trading

Soybeans were higher in overnight trading on signs of demand for U.S. supplies and corn rose amid declining crop conditions.

Exporters on Monday reported sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to an unnamed buyer, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported.

Sales of soybeans to China were reported by the USDA three days last week, indicating a pickup in demand for U.S. supplies.

Corn futures were up overnight after the government this week said 58% of the crop was in good or excellent condition at the start of the week, down from 59% a week earlier.

Just behind the prior five-year average of 5% for this time of the year, 4% was harvested as of Sunday, the agency said. Some 37% was mature, ahead of the 31% average, and 87% was dented vs. the normal 81% for this time of the year.

Roughly 57% of U.S. soybeans were in good or excellent condition as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week, the USDA said. About 38% of the crop was dropping leaves, ahead of the prior five-year average of 29%.  

About 12% of the U.S. winter-wheat crop was planted, ahead of the average of 8% for this time of year, the government said in its report.

Also underpinning prices are forecasts for limited rainfall in much of the central Midwest.

Dry weather in the region for the next two weeks likely will impact 15% of corn and soybean filling, Commodity Weather Group said in a report.

Forecasts are showing below-average precipitation in much of the Corn Belt for at least the next 15 days, CWG said.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 6½¢ to $12.89 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal rose $1 to $342.80 a short ton, and soy oil added 0.61¢ to 57.48¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery added 3¾¢ to $5.24 a bushel.

Wheat futures for December delivery gained 2½¢ to $7.03¼ a bushel overnight, while Kansas City futures rose 2¼¢ to $7.04 a bushel.

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2. Canadian Wheat Output Forecast to Drop 38% Year-Over-Year

Canadian wheat production is expected to plunge year-over-year along with production of all field crops.

Total wheat output this year is forecast at 21.7 million metric tons, according to a report from Statistics Canada. If realized, that would be down from 35.2 million metric tons and the lowest level in 14 years.

Durum wheat output is pegged at 3.55 million metric tons, down from 6.57 million tons a year earlier, StatsCan said. Spring wheat production is seen at 15.3 million metric tons, down from 25.8 million. Winter-wheat growers likely will produce 2.85 million metric tons, up from 2.77 million last year.

The U.S. Agriculture Department last week said it expects Canadian wheat output at around 23 million metric tons. That’s down from a prior projection for 24 million metric tons and well below last year’s 35.2 million tons.

It’s not just wheat output that’s expected to fall year-over-year.

Barley production is forecast at 7.14 million metric tons, down from 10.7 million the previous year. Canola output is now projected at 12.8 million metric tons, down from 19.5 million, the agency said.

StatsCan’s soybean production forecast was lowered to 5.89 million metric tons from 6.36 million a year earlier.

Bucking the trend, however, was corn output that’s now seen at 14.4 million metric tons, up from 13.6 million tons in the previous year, the government agency said.


3. Dry Weather Expected in Parts of North Dakota

Extremely dry weather is expected in much of western North Dakota today, which could lead to wildfires in the area, according to the National Weather Service.

A red-flag warning will take effect from about noon local time until 8 p.m. tonight, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

Winds are forecast from 20 to 25 mph with gusts of up to 35 mph. Relative humidity in the area is expected to fall as low as 15%, the agency said.

"A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior," the NWS said.

Farther south, the Gulf Coast is again facing excessive rainfall and flash flooding after Tropical Storm Nicholas – which is now a tropical depression – made landfall.

Flood warnings and watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi, the agency said. From 2 to 5 inches of rain is expected in parts of the region today and tonight, the NWS said.

“Tropical Depression Nicholas will continue to track east, moving slowly across Louisiana,” the agency said. “This should bring locally heavy rain and flooding concerns to the region.”

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