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3 Big Things Today, September 21

Soybeans Again Lower Overnight; Export Sales For Grains, Beans Top Expectations

1. Soybeans Again Lower Overnight After Double-Digit Gain

Soybeans were again lower after another double-digit increase the prior day as overnight traders seem more concerned about the ongoing trade row with China than their U.S. counterparts.

President Trump said in an interview with Fox News late Thursday that the U.S. must “take a stand on China.”

The president on Monday ordered the U.S. trade representative to impose duties on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, and China on Tuesday retaliated by putting tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. items. The new tariffs, if implemented, are set to begin on September 24.

The countries already have levies on $50 billion worth of the other’s goods.

Prices are also being pressured by expectations for record U.S. and global production. Domestic output is expected to jump to a record 4.693 billion bushels on yields of 52.8 bushels an acre, according to the Department of Agriculture.

Global production, meanwhile, is seen at 369.3 million metric tons, also the highest ever, the USDA said in a report earlier this month.

Futures yesterday jumped 20¢, though analysts and traders had varying opinions on why they surged including demand from Argentina, extremely wet weather that hurt crops or may delay planting, and technical buying after prices hit a 10-year low earlier this week.

Soybean futures for November delivery fell 5¼¢ to $8.45 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal lost $1.70 to $312.70 a short ton and soy oil declined 0.11¢ to 27.75¢ a pound.

Corn rose 1¾¢ to $3.54¼ a bushel overnight.

Wheat for December delivery lost 1¢ to $5.23  a bushel overnight, while Kansas City futures rose ½¢ to $5.27½ a bushel.


2. Weekly Export Sales of Corn, Beans, Wheat All Top Expectations

Export sales of corn almost doubled week-to-week while soybean sales were also robust, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Corn sales in the seven days that ended on September 13 totaled 1.38 million metric tons, up from 774,200 tons a week earlier, the USDA said in a report. Analysts had expected 500,000 to 1.2 million tons in sales, according to Allendale.

Mexico was the biggest buyer at 344,600 tons, followed by South Korea at 204,300 tons, and Peru at 148,900 tons. Japan bought 145,200 tons and Costa Rica purchased 135,900 tons, the government said.

Soybean sales also topped expectations at 917,600 tons, beating forecasts for sales of 400,000 to 900,000 tons and the prior week’s 693,500 tons.

Mexico was also the biggest buyer of soybeans last week, taking 165,600 tons. Indonesia bought 90,500 tons, Costa Rica purchased 70,300 tons, Spain was in for 66,900 tons, and Iran took 66,500 tons. An unknown buyer canceled a shipment for 28,000 tons, and China nixed a cargo of 4,000 tons, the U.S. government said.

Wheat sales jumped 21% week to week to 468,400 metric tons, on the high end of estimates of 250,000 to 500,000 tons.  

The Philippines bought 80,000 tons, Indonesia was in for 70,000, Vietnam took 61,000 tons, Thailand purchased 55,100 tons, and South Korea bought 48,600 tons. An unknown customer canceled a shipment for 27,200 tons, and Costa Rica canceled a contract for 4,000 tons, the USDA said.


3. Flood Warnings, Watches Issued for Parts of Iowa, South Dakota, Southern Minnesota

Flood warnings and watches have been issued for several counties in southeastern South Dakota, extreme southern Minnesota, and northern Iowa, according to the National Weather Service.

The Rock River in southern Minnesota and West Branch Floyd River in northern Iowa are overflowing their banks due to excessive precipitation, the NWS said in a report early Friday morning.

Several other rivers or streams are also full or flooding across low-lying areas in the region. The good news, the NWS said, is that a dry spell for the next few days will allow the waterways to recede and some drying to occur.

Commodity Weather Group Senior Ag Meteorologist David Streit said yesterday that he expects the area to dry out, but that there’s a chance for rain in the 11- to 15-day forecast. Since it takes a week to 10 days for a field to dry, whether that next front brings moisture will be critical for growers trying to get their crops out of the ground.

Flooding is also a problem along several rivers and tributaries in eastern Iowa.

“Another round of flooding is expected on some area rivers due to recent heavy rainfall,” the NWS said. “There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday, however, the severe weather risk appears low at this time.”

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