3 Big Things Today, September 26, 2022
1. CORN PRICES DECLINE OVERNIGHT UNDER HARVEST PRESSURE
Corn, soybeans, and wheat prices are all down in the overnight trade.
Harvest is starting to ramp up across the corn belt and weather conditions this week are looking favorable. This is putting downward pressure on corn prices, Reuters reports.
Grain continues to flow out of Ukraine thanks to the Black Sea trade deal. Reuters reports seven more ships left Ukraine on Sunday. This brings the total to 218 ships and 4.85 million tons of grain since the U.N. deal was arranged.
Prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine shipped 6 million tons a month.
2. INVESTORS RAISE BULLISH BETS IN CORN AND HARD-RED WINTER WHEAT
Money managers raised their net-long positions, or bets on higher prices, in corn last week to the highest in almost three months while lowering their bullish bets on beans, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Investors held a net-236,192 corn-futures contracts as of Sept. 20, up from 227,675 contracts a week earlier, the CFTC says in a report.
That’s the largest such position since the seven days that ended on June 21.
Speculators, however, reduced their net-longs in soybeans to 107,484 futures contracts from 114,761 contracts a week earlier, the government says.
In wheat, hedge funds and other large investment firms raised their bullish bets on hard-red winter wheat to 18,750 contracts last week, up from 16,875 contracts a week earlier.
That’s the largest such position since the seven days that ended on July 5.
Investors, meanwhile, reduced their net-short positions, or bets on lower prices, on soft-red winter wheat to 18,139 futures contracts, the agency says.
That’s down from 22,665 contracts a week earlier and the smallest bearish position since July 26, the CFTC says in its report.
The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC shows trader positions in futures markets.
The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.
A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline.
3. CORN BELT IN FOR DRY, COOL CONDITIONS AS HARVEST HEATS UP
Temperatures are forecast to be down across the Midwest this week with highs mostly in the mid to high 70s and lows down into the 40s.
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, eastern Iowa, and northern parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio are in for a colder week than the Plains states off to the west.
North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas are much more likely to see highs in the 80s this week.
Very little precipitation is forecast across the country this week, but there does appear to be a front moving across the Great Lakes region today and tomorrow, and into the Northeast by Wednesday.
Last week USDA’s Crop Progress report found seven percent of corn and three percent of soybeans had already been harvested. If farmers take to the fields this week, it is looking for now like the weather will be on their side.