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3 Big Things Today, September 28

Corn, Beans Lower Overnight; Ethanol Production Falls to Lowest Since June.

1. Corn, Beans Lower Overnight as Yield Reports Coming in Strong

Corn and soybeans were lower in overnight trading amid stronger-than-expected yield reports.

Yields are reportedly strong in much of Missouri where 32% of the crop has been harvested. Good yields also have been reported in parts of southern Illinois and Indiana.

Still, parts of Kansas were too dry during the growing season, leaving yields in the state below average, according to yield reports.

The harvest is still behind the average, with corn collection only 11% complete as of Sunday, down from the prior five-year pace of 17% for this time of year. Soybeans are 10% collected, down from the normal average of 12%, according to the USDA.

Weather maps vary, with some saying it’s expected to be dry for much of the next two weeks, which will speed the harvest. The National Weather Service is showing it’ll be wetter than normal in much of the Midwest in the next few days.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 1½¢ to $3.52½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybeans for November delivery lost 6¼¢ to $9.59¼ a bushel overnight. Soy meal futures declined $2.20 to $311.10 a short ton, and soy oil fell 0.12¢ to 33.10¢ a pound.

Wheat for December delivery dropped 1¾¢ to $4.59¾ a bushel in Chicago, while Kansas City futures declined 2¼¢ to $4.56¾ a bushel.


2. Ethanol Production Falls to Lowest Level Since June; Export Sales, Grain Stocks Reports Due

Ethanol production fell to the lowest level since June, and stockpiles dropped to the lowest since January last week, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Output averaged 996,000 barrels a day in the seven days through September 22, down from 1.033 million barrels the prior week and the lowest level since June 16, the EIA said in a report. It’s also the first time since then that production has fallen below the 1 million-barrel average.

Stockpiles also plunged, declining to 20.74 million barrels from 21.138 million a week earlier, according to the government. It’s also the lowest level since the week that ended on January 6.

There’s a definite trend as ethanol stocks last year started declining in about late September before rebuilding beginning around the first of the year.

In other news, the quarterly Grain Stocks Report will be out tomorrow from the USDA. Corn inventories on September 1 are pegged by analyst at 2.346 billion bushels, soybeans at 339 bushels, and wheat 2.203 billion bushels, according to Bloomberg.  

The weekly Export Sales Report is due out today, and analysts are expecting weekly corn sales at 400,000 to 700,000 metric tons, soybean sales of 1.5 million to 2 million tons, and wheat sales from 300,000 to 400,000 tons.


3. Weather Maps Quiet Thursday as Little Rain Expected in Next 10 to 14 Days

The weather maps are quiet in the Corn Belt today with only some wind advisories along Lake Michigan to report.

The weather likely will favor the corn harvest in the next 10 days, according to Commodity Weather Group. MDA Weather Services told that it also doesn’t expect much rain in the Midwest for the next couple of weeks.

The heat wave that’s engulfed several states in recent days also will subside, bringing relief to those working the fields.

The National Weather Service said, however, that there’s a chance the weather will be wetter than normal for the next few days, though that report is contradicted by private forecasters.

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