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3 Big Things Today, September 28

Grains Slightly Lower Overnight; Quarterly Corn Stocks Likely Down, Beans Higher.

1. Grains Slightly Lower, Beans Higher in Overnight Trading

Grains were slightly lower in overnight trading as a strong dollar makes U.S. corn and wheat less attractive to overseas buyers, while soybeans were slightly higher.

The dollar rose 0.3% against a basket of its peers overnight to the highest level since September 11. A strong greenback makes U.S. goods more expensive in dollar terms, which tends to curb export sales of everything including grains.

Prices are lower overnight despite a government report on Thursday that showed strong export sales for both corn and wheat. Soybeans are up modestly despite a weaker week-to-week sales report.

Fundamentally, not much has changed in the past 24 hours. It’s still too wet to harvest in many northern Midwest states, including parts of Iowa and Illinois, the biggest producers of corn and soybeans. Still, both crops are forecast to be records this year.

Wheat for December delivery fell 2¢ to $5.11 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Kansas City futures lost 2½¢ to $5.14¾ a bushel.

Corn futures lost 1¢ to $3.63¾ a bushel overnight.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 1¼¢ to $8.56¼ a bushel. Soy meal futures rose $1.70 to $313.50 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.20¢ to 28.95¢ a pound.


2. USDA Report Likely to Show Corn Stockpiles Down, Bean Inventories Higher Annually

The Quarterly Grain Stocks Report is due out today, which Dan Hueber of the Hueber Report calls “one of the more overlooked reports of the year.”

Inventories of corn on September 1 likely will be reported by the USDA at 2.01 billion bushels, analysts said, down from 2.29 billion a year earlier.

Consensus for soybean stockpiles at the start of the month probably will be reported at 401 million bushels, up from 302 million last year,.

All wheat in storage likely totaled 2.34 billion bushels, up from 2.27 billion at the beginning of September in 2017, according to analysts.

Hueber said there also may be a wheat production update, which is forecast by traders at 1.872 billion bushels, including 1.19 billion of winter wheat and 684 million in spring varieties.

The USDA also released its Export Sales Report on Thursday, with corn jumping on a week-to-week basis to 1.71 million metric tons from 1.38 million during the same week last year. Mexico was the big buyer at 623,200 tons, Guatemala bought 161,400 tons, Japan took 124,500 tons, Egypt bought 110,500 tons, and Peru was in for 92,900 tons.

Wheat sales were also higher, rising 40% weekly to 657,100 metric tons. Japan bought 140,600 tons, the Philippines took 94,400 tons, Mexico purchased 91,100 tons, unknown buyers bought 88,200 tons, and Venezuela was in for 60,000 tons. Uruguay nixed a cargo for 30,000 tons, the USDA said.

Sales of soybeans, however, fell to 870,700 metric tons from 917,600 tons, the government said. An unknown customer bought 351,700 tons, Spain was in for 104,600 tons, the Netherlands purchased 103,200 tons, Argentina was in for 96,100 tons, and Japan bought 61,500 tons. China canceled a shipment for 64,000 tons.


3. Freeze Warning in Effect For Much of North Dakota With Temperatures in the 20s

A freeze warning is in effect for much of North Dakota this morning as temperatures are expected to be in the 20s, according to the National Weather Service.

The spring wheat crop is already in the bin, but North Dakota’s corn harvest is just getting under way, and only 21% of soybeans have been collected in the state, USDA data show. Only 65% of corn was mature as of last week, the USDA said.

Still, 66% of the North Dakota corn crop was rated good or excellent, while 54% of soybeans earned top ratings.

Elsewhere, parts of eastern Iowa that are already flooded are likely to see more rainfall this weekend and potentially some frost tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday, though they’re not expected to be severe. Another front may roll through the area Sunday through Tuesday, according to the NWS.

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