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3 Big Things Today, September 30, 2022

Grains, Soybeans Rise Overnight; Export Sales Surge Week-to-Week

1. Grain and Soybean Futures Rise in Overnight Trading

Grain and soybean futures were higher in overnight trading on concerns about shipments from Ukraine and unfavorable weather in South America.

Russia is expected to annex parts of Ukraine today, allowing it to claim the territory as its own and assert any attacks on the regions by Ukrainian forces would be an attack on Russia itself.

Ukraine and western countries will not recognize the annexation efforts in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions in Ukraine.

About 25 civilians were reportedly killed in a Russian missile strike in the city of Zaporizhzhia, several media outlets reported. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky called Russia a "terrorist state" after the attack.

A deal was reached in late July that has allowed Ukraine grain to flow from port cities. However, the increased tensions in recent weeks, and comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin have left some wondering how long the agreement will remain in place.

Meanwhile, in South America, dry weather is expected over the weekend in Argentina, while some rain will fall in Brazil, said Don Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist with Maxar.

"Mostly dry weather should prevail through Monday" in parts of Argentina, he said. "Drier weather through early next week will allow moisture shortages to expand on late wheat growth."

Some improvement is expected in southern growing areas of the country next week, Keeney said.

In Brazil, rain this weekend will favor several growing areas including Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Mina Gerais, the forecaster said. Rains in western Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais likely will improve corn conditions.

Wheat futures for December delivery jumped 14 ½¢ to $9.10 ¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, while Kansas City futures gained 13 ¼¢ to $9.80 a bushel.

Corn futures for December delivery rose 5 ¼¢ to $6.74 ¾ a bushel.

Soybean futures for November delivery gained 6 ½¢ to $14.17 ¼ a bushel. Soymeal added $1.70 to $408.90 a short ton, while soybean oil rose 0.05¢ to $63.91 a pound.

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2. Export Sales Surge Across the Board, USDA Says

Export sales of grains and soybeans jumped in the week that ended on Sept. 22, according to data from the USDA.

Corn sales last week totaled 512,000 metric tons, up from 182,300 tons the previous week, the agency said in a report.

Mexico was the big buyer at 321,700 metric tons, followed by an unnamed buyer at 57,000 tons and Honduras at 51,900 tons. Japan was in for 51,100 tons, and Panama bought 44,200 tons.

The total would've been higher but Egypt canceled shipments for 65,000 metric tons, the Ag Department said.

Exports for the week came in at 574,700 metric tons, up slightly from the 563,000 tons shipped a week earlier.

Wheat sales were reported at 279,800 metric tons versus 183,500 tons the previous week, the USDA said.

Guatemala purchased 115,400 metric tons from U.S. supplies, Thailand was in for 47,500 tons, Mexico bought 45,500 tons, and Brazil took 30,000 tons, the government said.

An unnamed country nixed shipments for 66,300 metric tons of U.S. wheat.

Exports for the week came in at 620,700 metric tons, down from 678,200 tons a week earlier, the agency said.

Soybean sales surged to 1 million metric tons as China was in for 548,700 metric tons, Mexico purchased 217,000 tons, Japan took 81,600 tons, Egypt bought 78,000 tons, and Tunisia purchased 30,000 tons.  

The sales were offset by reductions by an unknown destination, which canceled shipments of 23,700 tons.

Exports of U.S. supplies were reported at 269,200 metric tons, well below the 522,500 tons that were shipped the previous week, the USDA said in its report.

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3. Tropical Storm Warnings in Effect for Southeastern States

Tropical storm warnings are in effect in parts of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia as the remnants of Hurricane Ian make their way across the southeast, according to the National Weather Service.

Winds in parts of North Carolina will gust up to 45 mph have to potential to reach 39 to 57 mph, unchanged from a previous outlook, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

Flood watches also are in effect as another 3 to 6 inches — potentially more in some areas — of rain are forecast for the region.

"Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places," the NWS said. "Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed."

In the southern Plains, meanwhile, red-flag warnings have been issued amid extremely dry weather, the agency said.

Winds in southwestern Kansas will be sustained from 15 to 25 mph this afternoon with gusts up to 35 mph. Relative humidity is expected to fall as low as 13%, the NWS said.

"Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread," the agency said.

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