3 Big Things Today, September 9, 2020

Most of the Midwest should see rain this week.

1. Ag markets seen lower, dollar higher

In overnight trading, the Dec. corn futures are 2½¢ lower at $3.59½. March corn futures 2¼¢ lower at $3.69¾.
 
Nov. soybean futures are ¼¢ higher at $9.73¼. January soybean futures are ½¢ lower at $9.77¾.

Dec. wheat futures are 2¢ lower at $5.42½. 

Dec. soymeal futures are $0.60 per short ton higher at $315.20. Dec. soy oil futures are 0.22¢ lower at 33.18¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are expected to bounce back from a three-trading-session sell-off.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that weaher and global factors are leading the markets this week.

“Watch the extended weather forecasts now in Brazil. Some states there are starting to plant soybeans; other states can start on Friday if they get some rain. The very dry conditions in Argentina are moving into about 25% of Brazil’s main crop area,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Brazil’s planting season could impact the November 2020 soybean futures contract. 

In early January, the CBOT November 2020 soybean contract hit a high of $9.82 per bushel. 

“From there, prices traded down to the low at $8.31 in late April 2020. From that low, prices rallied to $9.12, corrected back to $8.65, then rallied to the high yesterday at $9.77. Major resistance is at the January 2020 high at $9.82,” Kluis stated Wednesday. 

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2. USDA’s crop ratings drop

On Tuesday, the USDA released its delayed Crop Progress Report.

The trade had anticipated a drop of a few points in the good/excellent ratings and the USDA did not disappoint. 

In its report, the USDA’s estimate of corn with a good/excellent rating is 61% vs. 62% a week ago and 55% a year ago.

The Iowa corn crop, as of Sept. 7, 2020, has a good/excellent rating of 43%, a two point drop from a week ago. Illinois’ corn is rated at 70%, 62% for Nebraska, and 61% for Indiana’s corn.

Meanwhile, 97% of the nation’s corn is dough vs. a 94% five-year average.

The USDA pegged the U.S. corn as 79% dented vs. a 71% five-year average.

The USDA has pegged the U.S. corn as 25% mature, above a 19% five-year average. 

USDA rated 20% of the U.S. soybean crop is dropping leaves vs. a 16% five-year average.

In its report, the USDA estimates the soybean good/excellent rating at 65% vs. 66% a week ago, and 55% a year ago.

In its report Monday, the USDA rated the U.S. winter wheat crop as 5% planted vs. an 3% five-year average.


3. Rain relief for Iowa, frost for Minnesota

In Minnesota, The National Weather Service in Twin Cities has issued a frost advisory, which is in effect from 1 a.m. to 7 a.m. CDT Thursday.

Temperatures as low as 32°F. will result in frost formation. Portions of west-central, southwest, central, and east-central Minnesota, as well as west-central Wisconsin will all be affected.

Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered, according to the NWS.

In Iowa, the persistent cloudy, cool, and unsettled weather pattern will continue through early this weekend, according to the NWS forecast. 

“Expect periods of rain throughout the period with the highest rain chances today and tonight and again on Friday into early Saturday. Additional rainfall amounts through Saturday will likely range from 1 to 2 inches with a few locally higher amounts possible. This beneficial rainfall will provide some drought relief, and no severe weather is expected,” NWS forecasters said Wednesday. 

Temperatures will remain below average for this time of year with highs in the 40s and 50s today, with a gradually warming trend into the 60s by Saturday, according to the NWS forecasters. 

“After the system departs, early next week appears to feature a very pleasant stretch of weather with plenty of sunshine and seasonally temps in the 70s to low 80s,” NWS forecasters stated Wednesday.

In Illinois, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move northeastward along the Illinois River Valley area early this morning. Some locally heavy rain will still be possible, NWS forecasters said.

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