To Harvest or Not to Harvest, That Is the Question

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” That’s the famous beginning of Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities.

It could just as well be the beginning of the tale of two crops in 2019, first the one we expected when the year began. Then there was the crop we expected in June, when very little was planted and it looked like it would be a disaster. Well, we did lose 20 million acres (give or take a few million) to prevented planting. But all of a sudden, it seemed the crop got nearly perfect weather to push through the year, and all was well again.  

Oh, wait. Come Sept. 10 we started to realize the crop was still very far behind, to the point where it didn’t seem it would make maturity. Then the best of times returned, with no frost in many northern areas until mid-October, with some areas still not experiencing frost in the southeastern Corn Belt. 

For many, we quickly became “the worst of times,” with excessive rain making it difficult (or impossible) for farmers to harvest the crop. Let’s not even talk about the 3 feet of snow that fell in parts of North Dakota, or the 1 to 2 feet or more covering most of both North Dakota and South Dakota.

Flash forward to today, and with China back in the weekly announcements as purchasers of both grain and meats, things are looking up again in the market. But what exactly is the 2019 crop going to be like? 

USDA seems as confused as anyone, raising yield one month, only to lower it the next month (which has been repeated a few times already this year). 

Soybeans, so far, have mostly been headed lower in USDA yield estimates. So, it seems a little more likely that soybeans will be a below-average crop in 2019. Corn, so far, is also estimated below average, but how much is always the million-dollar question.  

Crop Progress

Crop progress/conditions, yesterday, continue to show a late crop/harvest, with only 30% of the corn harvested vs. 47% normally.  

However, this is not the latest harvest year, nor is this year the wettest (it was wetter nationally last year at this time). Yet, it still is a difficult, late harvest. 

Corn conditions did improve 1% to 56% rated G/E. The Pro Ag yield model went up 0.57 bu/acre to 171.7 bu, still above USDA’s estimated 168.4 bu. 

Soybeans were 46% harvested, 18% behind normal with conditions steady at 54% rated G/E. The yield model has run out of data points, as most years by this time the condition ratings were no longer made as we were over 50% harvested. 

So now the world switches to harvest results rather than condition ratings.  

Cotton harvest is actually 5% ahead of normal, which is among the only crop where harvest is ahead of normal. 

Sorghum is 4% behind normal harvest progress with 49% completed, while sugar beets are a huge 31% behind normal at 42% harvested; sunflowers are 18% behind at 9% complete, and HRS wheat still has 4% left to harvest at 96% complete (in mid-October).  

Winter wheat is 77% planted (2% ahead of normal) and 53% emerged. 

Soils are wet and getting wetter, with 76% rated adequate/surplus topsoil (up 2%) and 75% subsoil rated adequate/surplus (up 3%). At least soils are a bit drier than last year’s soggy harvest.  

There is still a lot of uncertainty, not just on the 2019 crop size in the U.S., but also on trade (especially with China). So far, it has been an interesting year to say the least.

Ray can be reached at raygrabanski@progressiveag.com.  
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Ray is President of Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc., a top Ranked marketing firm in the country.  See http://www.progressiveag.com for rankings and link to data from Top Producer Magazine and Agweb.com.

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