2021 brings hope for dry areas of Brazil

Drier end to 2020 in southern Brazil but precipitation trends may soon turn the corner.

After some Christmas weekend moisture in southern Brazil, a drier regime looks set to return to the region as the clock ticks down on 2020 and we enter 2021. According to data from Weathertrends360, drier-than-normal conditions will extend from southern Paraná and down into Uruguay and eastern Argentina for the week ending January 3, 2021. These weather concerns will continue to put upward pressure on corn and soybean futures.

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A strong La Niña remains in place and is expected to continue through the Southern Hemisphere summer. During La Niña events, the Brazilian monsoon tends to be delayed and can result in suboptimal soil moisture for important crop growing regions. By this point in the season, however, the monsoon tends to recover but this year it seems the suppression of monsoon moisture has been extended. As we move into January, the influence of La Niña often decreases as smaller-scale atmospheric processes increase in influence over precipitation patterns in Brazil, so we may see an increase in moisture as we head deeper into January 2021.

For the short-term (December 28, 2020 to January 03, 2021), Weathertrends360 predicts that this will be the second driest such period in 30 years for Rio Grande do Sul and the sixth driest in Santa Catarina. Portions of the Central-West Brazil will fare better than southern Brazil with more consistent rains expected to end 2020 and into the first days of 2021.

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