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Conflicting Forecasts for Summer 2017

When it comes to predicting what the growing season will look like, it might be a little too early to say. That being said, Successful Farming magazine has a couple ideas from weather experts to flesh out. 

Tony Lupo, a University of Missouri professor of atmospheric science, got people talking last week about his growing season forecast that highlights normal temperatures and possibly wetter conditions than normal. 

“Early during the formation of El Niño patterns, the Midwest typically sees mild and wet summers, which is what we expect to experience this year,” Lupo said in an article published by Mizzou. 

When Dale Mohler of Accuweather saw Lupo’s summer forecast, he was a little surprised since his forecast looks quite different. 

In the western part of the Midwest that encompasses Nebraska, the Dakotas, and stretches into northwest Iowa, Mohler foresees below-average rainfall over the summer. Specifically, he thinks those states will get 75% to 80% of the amount of rainfall they normally get. 

The middle section of the Midwest should have normal rainfall, but states in the eastern part of the Corn Belt might be wetter than normal. 

“As far as the three months, we think June might be wetter than July,” Mohler says. “August will be the driest of the three.”

Temperature-wise, Mohler and his team at Accuweather are forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures for corn and soybean growers in the Midwest and Corn Belt. Temperatures should be 1° to 3° above average with the hottest temperatures hovering over Nebraska and the Dakotas, while Ohio experiences the lower end of that spectrum. 

A Different Story Than 2016

For those remembering last year’s growing season in their area, it’s pretty safe to say the forecasts are opposite for your area. While Ohio was bone dry and warm last year, this year the state should see more rain and temperatures closer to normal. 

Lupo is predicting slighter higher-than-normal corn and soybean yields throughout his state of Missouri, except in southeast Missouri where yields may drop slightly. 

For more details on Lupo’s summer forecast, click here.

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