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Midwest Weather a Mixed Bag as Rain This Weekend Likely Followed by Dry Spell 

It’s a mixed bag in terms of weather for the next seven to 10 days with showers broken up by days-long dry spells, according to meteorologists.

The good news for farmers who are behind on harvest is that after today, the odds of rain in much of the Midwest will diminish until the weekend, said David Streit, a meteorologist at Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland.

Saturday and Sunday, however, precipitation is expected in almost all of the Corn Belt, he said. After the weekend, the rain is expected to give way to drier weather, which will help growers get into fields, Streit said.

“We’re going to have breaks, but we won’t dry out completely,” he told Agriculture.com. “It looks like after some showers today, it’s going to dry out until Friday. Then the rains move back in, and then we get another break.”

As much as a half foot of rain (or more than six times the normal amount for this time of year) has fallen in some parts of the Midwest in the past seven days, according to the National Weather Service.

As of October 5, there’s surprisingly some parts of the U.S. Midwest that are dry.

A small part of south-central Iowa and several counties in central South Dakota are still in extreme drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Some parts of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and Indiana are suffering from moderate drought or are abnormally dry, as are much of the Dakotas, the monitor said.

This weekend’s weather event in the Midwest will bring a fair amount of rain that will keep farmers from fields. As much as 3 inches are expected primarily in northern Missouri, southeastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin, Streit said.

The ensuing break in the rain will start Monday and likely will continue for five or six days, he said.

The weather story will be similar in the Southern Plains where hard red winter wheat is being planted as intermittent rain is expected in the area.

Western Kansas will be mostly dry for the next two days before the same storm that’s expected to bring rain to the Corn Belt drops precipitation in winter wheat country. As in the Midwest, the storms will move out late Sunday, and dry weather is expected for at least the first half of next week, according to National Weather Service maps.

“Things will be improving (in Kansas) in terms of drier periods than what they’ve been seeing, but they won’t be rain-free,” Streit said. “Shower activity from the same system will extend into the eastern half of Kansas – about 25% of hard red winter areas will see some setback from showers.”

It’s not just U.S. weather that’s being watched as growers, traders, and analysts also have their eyes on rainfall in South America.

In Brazil, rains this week have been focused mostly in southwest Parana and Santa Catarina with only isolated showers in Mato Grosso, CWG said. Argentina has been mainly dry.

In the next 10 days, however, rains in far southern Brazil will slow the country’s wheat harvest, while precipitation in central and western parts of the country will boost prospects for corn and soybean growth, the forecaster said.

Northeastern Brazil is expected to be drier in the next 11 to 15 days, however, which likely will hurt corn and beans that need precipitation.

David Tolleris at WxRisk.com said he expects it to stay “very wet” in southeastern Brazil and hot and dry in central and eastern regions of the country. The 11- to 15-day forecast, however, brings the potential for rain into central and eastern Brazil, he said. 

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