Poorly timed rain could delay South America harvest
Significant rain has arrived in southern Brazil and the wetter weather pattern is expected to continue as we close out January and head into February. While Argentina remained fairly dry, portions of far northeastern Argentina saw above-normal precipitation in the last full week of January. Fortunes look to shift across a large portion of the northern half of Argentina as we transition from January to February with wetter weather expected.
A big shift in the weather pattern brings wetter weather to southern Brazil and northern Argentina as we transition from January to February, while areas that were wetter earlier in January turn drier. For the week ending February 4, 2021, this will be one of the wettest such periods in 30 years for the states of Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Parana according to data from Weathertrends360. Meanwhile, this will be one of the driest late-January-to-early-February periods in 30 years for states like Goias, Minas Gerais, and Sao Paulo.
The rainfall is bittersweet for an area that earlier in the season was quite dry, which resulted in concerns for the soybean and corn crop condition. Yet, it arrives at a time when excessive rainfall causes harvest delays. The delays in harvest could also delay the planting of the Safrinha (second) corn crop.
Looking ahead to the first full week of February, Weathertrends360 sees an increased risk of drier conditions returning to northern Argentina, Uruguay, and far southern Brazil. Outside of southern Brazil, the soils of northern Argentina and Uruguay have not seen enough rain to replenish soil moistures sufficiently, so this may increase crop concerns here as we head deeper into February.
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