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Time ticking away as dry season approaches Brazil’s safrinha-growing regions

Window closing for soils to recharge with moisture before dry season hits.

A drier weather pattern continued for Central Brazil while Southern Brazil trended wetter in the second full week of April 2022, week-ending April 16. According to data from WeatherTrends360, this was the fourth-driest second week of April in more than 30 years for Goiás and Mato Grosso. Continued drier weather in the major safrinha-producing states is cause for concern as the dry season is quickly approaching.

Meanwhile, rainfall has been plentiful in Southern Brazil and this was the third-wettest second full week of April in 30-plus years for Paraná. Precipitation in Southern Brazil has been favorable thus far in the safrinha crop growing season, a huge change from the dry conditions for the soybean crop grown earlier this year.

Heading into the third full week of April, week-ending April 23, there will be a shift to drier trends in Southern Brazil. This is forecast to be the fourth- and ninth-driest third week of April in 30 or more years for the state of Sao Paulo and Paraná, respectively. Drier trends will extend up into portions of Central Brazil, including Minas Gerais where this is forecast to be the second-driest third week of April in the same time span, according to WeatherTrends360. However, there will be a chance of increased showers across the northern half of Mato Grosso. 

wt360 4/18/22

The next couple of weeks are going to be critical for the safrinha crop as the clock quickly ticks down to the start of the dry season. Unfortunately, under La Niña conditions, the dry season can set in a couple of weeks early, shortening the window for moisture to arrive. Soils need to be well charged heading into the dry season to support the safrinha crop through to harvest. This year, the main risk is in Central Brazil, where soil moistures may not be plentiful enough to carry the crop through the dry season.



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