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Warm September lowers early frost risk In the Corn Belt

Precipitation continues to trend lower than normal.

The first full week of September, week-ending September 10, was another week of spotty rainfall in the Corn Belt. This was the eighth driest first full week of September in 30+ years for the Corn Belt as a whole, according to data from WeatherTrends360. Beneficial rainfall extended from the middle Mississippi Valley to the Northeast. Temperatures continued above normal, and this was the eighth warmest first full week of September in 30+ years for the Corn Belt. 

A more autumnal feel across the Corn Belt to the start of the second full week of September, week-ending September 17 as cooler temperatures pay a brief visit. Warmth should return by the latter half of the week. In fact, above normal temperatures are expected for much of the balance of September in the Corn Belt, lowering the risk of an early frost. However, the WeatherTrends360 forecast calls for a change as the calendar flips to October with increasing chances of below normal temperatures and frosts.

wt 360 US forecast 091122 to 091722

Precipitation will again be spotty throughout much of the Corn Belt with the best chance of precipitation in eastern portions of the region. Unfortunately, rainfall prospects are grim for the drought-ridden western Corn Belt.

In the southern Plains, dry weather in the second full week of September will be favorable for harvest. Rainfall in recent weeks has eased drought across some areas, including Texas and Arkansas, but likely, the rain arrived too late to aid summer crops. 

The tropics have erupted with activity over the past couple of weeks, luckily, none of the storms in the Atlantic Basin have threatened land thus far. Meanwhile in the eastern Pacific Basin, Hurricane Kay moved up the Baja California peninsula late in the first full week of September, with the remnants of Kay eventually bringing rain even into parts of the Southwest, including southern California. The tropics will need to be monitored over the next several weeks as more system are forecast to develop, but there are no immediate threats to the United States.



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