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Weather Patterns a Mixed Bag in Midwest Next Week to 10 Day

Rain in Corn Belt may keep stress low, though southwestern areas to see dry weather.

Weather patterns are going to be a mixed back and likely will be quite localized for the next seven to 10 days, bringing rain to some areas while leaving others high and dry.

Maps show the potential for below-average rainfall in the next week, but things aren’t as dire as they may seem at first glance, said Joel Widenor, a meteorologist at Commodity Weather Group in Washington, DC.

The outlook for much of the Midwest appears dry, but recent rains and potential precipitation next week likely will ease stress on much of the Corn Belt, he said.

“There has been some forecasts for … hot and dry weather but models have been finding a little more shower activity,” Widenor said. “It’s still been warm but not as hot as projected.”

Only about a quarter of the Corn Belt is expected to be under stress due to a lack of precipitation and hot weather in the next week to 10 days. The most at-risk area will be the southwestern Midwest including parts of Kansas, Missouri, southern Iowa, southern Illinois and central and southern Indiana, he said.

It’ll be a mixed bag in Iowa, the biggest producer of both corn and soybeans, as northern areas likely will see plenty of rainfall while southern counties could be dry, Widenor said. Showers in the past few days in Iowa and northern Illinois likely will help boost soil moisture, keeping crop stress at bay – at least for now.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released this week shows little stress so far in Iowa and Illinois where small areas of land are seeing abnormal dryness or moderate drought conditions.

The driest areas this week were in parts of southeastern Colorado, southwestern Kansas, almost all of northern Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle, the Drought Monitor map shows.

Don Keeney, a meteorologist with forecaster Maxar, said in a note to clients yesterday that rain in the central and eastern Midwest over the next few days likely will boost moisture, but he expects some dryness and stress to build next week.

In the Delta, rains have been near expectations this week, and the forecast is unchanged as rainfall should favor east-central parts of the region this weekend, Keeney said.

Rainfall in the northern Delta likely will improve soil moisture, though, again, hot and dry weather next week could cause plant stress, he said.

In the northern Plains, meanwhile, a dry spell was followed by recent rains that have given moisture levels a bump, CWG’s Widenor said.

“The northern Plains have seen a lot of rain recently,” he said. “It had been quite dry prior to that. Now over the last 30 days they’ve had a moisture surplus. (Weather patterns) are not going to be as active so that might draw down some moisture, but with the amount of rain they’ve had up there it’s going to be a while before that becomes a problem.”

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