Will Congress Change Its Mind After Scaling Down the CRP?

Landowners are knocking on USDA's door, trying to enroll land into the increasingly exclusive CRP. The government saw the strongest competition for entry in the 30-year history of CRP when it held the first general sign-up in three years. The acceptance rate announced in May was the lowest ever, a scant 22%.

The squeeze reflects the decision by lawmakers to scale down CRP as part of cost cutting in the 2014 farm law. It was a popular idea; enrollment was dropping anyway during the commodity boom. The CRP peaked at 36.8 million acres in 2007, but by fall 2015, it was down to 24.2 million acres, its smallest size since the late 1980s. Economist Dave Widmar says the transition was an important factor in expansion of corn and soybean acreage. Beginning October 1, CRP enrollment will be limited to 24 million acres until a new farm bill is written.

Now that commodity prices are in a multiyear rut and CRP's annual payments are more competitive, it will be hard for Congress to reverse direction, say farm lobbyists. The mood in Congress, driven by fiscal conservatives, is to cut spending rather than to expand programs. After the near-death experience of June 20, 2013, when the House defeated a farm bill for the first time ever, farm groups are worried about prospects for the 2018 farm bill.

"That's the big question," says Ferd Hoefner of the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition. "Will there be a farm bill overall?"

The CRP is popular, says another farm lobbyist, but with austere funding, the 24 million-acre ceiling isn't likely to be raised nor is USDA likely to hold another general sign-up soon. The CRP will remain, but it will increasingly be squeezed down and the criteria for entry going up. It's a budget thing.

Created during the 1980s agricultural recession with the unspoken goal of tamping down crop production, CRP has evolved to put more emphasis on protecting fragile land, reducing erosion, protecting water quality, and improving wildlife habitat. While general sign-ups are becoming rare, continuous enrollment is available for targeted projects such as filter strips along waterways.

While USDA says it accepted 411,000 acres from the general sign-up, it notes a record 860,000 acres entered CRP through continuous enrollment during fiscal 2015, and more than 1 million acres might be accepted this year. Continuous enrollment could keep the CRP enrollment near the 24 million-acre ceiling through 2019.

Contracts on a combined 11.6 million acres expire in 2020, 2021, and 2022, nearly equal to half of the entire CRP. With turnover looming for such a large block of land, the 2018 farm bill could become the forum for deciding if CRP will shrink, hold steady, or expand.