Farm Markets End Mostly Lower Friday

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s farm markets closed mostly lower, as wheat gives back all of its gains from Thursday.

At the close, the May corn futures settled 1¢ lower at $3.85. July futures finished 1¢ lower at $3.92.

May soybean futures finished 3¢ higher at $10.71. July soybean futures ended 2¾¢ higher at $10.79¼.

May wheat futures ended 15½¢ lower at $5.00.

May soy meal futures closed $4.30 per short ton lower at $392.90. January soy oil futures finished 0.09¢ lower at 32.30¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.25 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 221 points lower.

Mike North, president at Commodity Risk Management Group, says that a a Friday sell-off has arrived, following a strong week higher. 

“Technical selling, ahead of the weekend, together with mixed reviews of potential chances of rainfall in the 10-day forecast have traders nervous. Continued deterioration in Argentina crops has allowed soybeans to hold together despite the large sell-off in meal. 

That has been also helped by support in today’s soy oil trade,” North says.

He adds, “Wheat is the leader in today’s setback. The flash bid in wheat in yesterday’s session helped to set that up as we entered the morning trade.”

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm futures rallied on fund-buying, while President Trump’s tariff plan on imports of steel and aluminum drop U.S. stock market.

At the close, the May corn futures finished 4¼¢ higher at $3.86¼; July futures finished 4¢ higher at $3.93½.

May soybean futures closed 12½¢ higher at $10.68; July soybean futures finished 12¼¢ higher at $10.76½.

May wheat futures ended 20½¢ higher at $5.15½.

May soy meal futures settled $0.16 per short ton higher at $397.20. January soy oil futures ended 0.16¢ higher at 32.39¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 64¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 500 points lower.

On Thursday, the USDA announced fresh soybean sales today, outside of the weekly export sales. Private exporters reported to the USDA the following activity:

• Export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China. Of the total 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year, and 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
• Export sales of 126,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total 63,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year, and 63,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year. The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says the price turnaround seems like mostly fund buying again. “New sales announcements in soybeans to China and better-than-expected export sales for beans are helping prices move up. A lot of marketwatchers wanted to see some demand show up, after the Argentine drought news and on ideas that Brazil ports might be full for a while,” Scoville says. “Corn sales were great once again. I saw a tweet that said that we have sold a quarter of our projected export demand in just six weeks. That is a lot!”  

The higher wheat market is still weather-related, Scoville says. “It’s too dry here in the U.S. and too cold in Europe and Russia. Winterkill definitely is expected,” Scoville says.

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets closed higher, on the back of a sharp wheat rally.

At the close, May corn futures finished 2¾¢ higher at $3.82; July futures ended 2½¢ higher at $3.89½.

May soybean futures settled 6¢ higher at $10.55½; July soybean futures closed 5¾¢ higher at $10.64¼.

May wheat futures ended 18¢ higher at $4.95.

May soy meal futures closed $5.50 per short ton higher at $394.70. January soy oil futures finished 0.17¢ lower at 32.23¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.36 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 40 points lower.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says the ag commodities’ markets are benefitting from crop weather problems.

“The weather market continues in all grains lead by soybean meal. The meal market hit contract highs for the third straight week, due to dry weather concerns in Argentina,” Roose says. “The wheat market continues to find support on poor crop ratings in the U.S. wheat and cold-weather damage to Black Sea wheat.”

On Tuesday, the USDA released weak winter wheat condition ratings. Those ratings, combined with crop weather problems in Europe, are supporting higher wheat prices.

Bob Linneman, Kluis Commodities grain analyst, says investors have even more news to trade soon, regarding the falling Argentinian soybean crop.

“The upcoming monthly March USDA WASDE Report will need to provide the large downward adjustments to Argentina’s production that traders are expecting. Otherwise, we could see prices fall faster than they have risen,” Linneman stated in a daily note to customers Wednesday.

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets trimmed their gains in wheat and soybeans but still finished higher.

At the close, the March corn futures finished 2¢ higher at $3.70½; May futures finished 2¢ higher at $3.79¼.

March soybean futures closed 3¾¢ higher at $10.38; May soybean futures ended 3½¢ higher at $10.49½.

March wheat futures closed 4¼¢ higher at $4.77.

May soy meal futures ended $8.90 per short ton higher at $389.20. January soy oil futures closed 0.46¢ lower at 32.40¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.02 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 211 points lower.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says the soybean market going higher is all weather.

“This is still mostly Argentina’s drought problems offering support for soybeans and corn. Plus, U.S. and the cold weather in Europe and Russia are pushing up the wheat market.  Funds are the best buyers. I think corn and wheat still have a chance to run, especially corn where basis is improving and demand is strong. Beans might be near a top for me. I admit to the lost production in SA, but there are still beans. I would be more willing to talk higher prices if the beans export demand was better. So, I am careful with the beans but liking the corn,” Scoville says. 

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

While the soybean and wheat markets started the day leading the CME Group’s markets, soybeans turned lower Monday.

Investors are trying to figure out if Argenentina’s worst drought in 73 years – dropping soybean yields by 46% by some measures – has already been built into the market.

At the close, the March corn futures finished 2¼¢ higher at $3.68; May futures finished 2¾¢ higher at $3.77¼.

March soybean futures ended 2¢ lower at $10.34¼; May soybean futures settled 1½¢ lower at $10.46.

March wheat futures closed 8½¢ higher at $4.72¾.

May soy meal futures closed $2 per short ton higher at $380.30. January soy oil futures finished 0.30¢ higher at 32.86¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 31¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 341 points higher.